• INTRODUCTION
• ELECTIONS AND POLITICAL SITUATION 
• IMPORTANT POLITICAL ISSUES
• OPPOSITION GROUPS AND EXILED PARTIES

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INTRODUCTION

Namely due to Qadhafi’s support for international terrorism and its weapons of mass destruction programme in the 1980’s the West had broken diplomatic ties with Libya and imposed sanctions on the country. As a result, for many years the country suffered from an economic decline and found itself in a disordered situation in which assassination attempts were made on Qadhafi during the 1980’s, and mass protests organised by militant groups. Libya’s normalisation of relations with the Western world started in 2003 after the country compensated for the victims of in particular the well-known 1988 bombing of an aircraft over Lockerbie, and renounced its support for international terrorism. At the end of the same year the country’s isolation – that lasted nearly for three decades – was officially ended when Libya gave up its intentions to develop its nuclear programme. In September 2008 U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, paid an official visit to Libya which marked a new era in relations between Libya and the U.S. – a country that once was one of U.S.’s main enemies.

Despite its return in the international arena the country has a restrained internal political situation, in which the creation of political parties is strongly prohibited and most of the opposition does not succeed in challenging the regime, as it is mainly abroad in exile. The opposition within the country itself is too intimated, as well as too fractured and unorganised to pose any real threat to the authorities. Besides that Libya has many other issues to solve such as human rights and the freedom of press and expression.

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ELECTIONS AND POLITICAL SITUATION 

In 1969 the former United Kingdom of Libya saw a bloodless state coup by young national officers led by Colonel Muammar Abu Minyar al-Qadhafi, which deposed the former King and proclaimed the “great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya”. After Qadhafi seized power an “Islamic socialist state” was created. Through part one of the “Green Book”, the political and economic instrument of government, “The Solution of the Problem of Democracy”, Qadhafi introduced a new type of society, namely the so called “state of the masses” (Jamahiriya) or “the authority of the people”, where the power is held by several people’s committees and is free of party politics. Therefore there is merely one party – the Arab Socialist Union (ASU) – where all the power rests and other political parties are prohibited. The Green Book clarifies Qadhafi’s unique vision of reconciled socialist and Islamic theories, and the ideas in the book (read: Libya’s variant of a Constitution) distinguish themselves from both capitalism and communism. The Green Book defines what form the exercise of authority should assume, and how societies should organise themselves politically in the modern world. Officially the country has no formal Constitution as the Green Book defines that it is undemocratic and invalid for an assembly, committee or individual to draft legislation for society. According to the Green Book the natural law of any given society grounds in either tradition or religion and law drafted outside these two sources is illogical and unacceptable.

Branches of Government

Executive and legislative branch 
The executive branch in Libya is since 1 September 1969 formed by the chief of state, the “Brotherly Leader and Guide of the Revolution” (as often depicted by the media), Colonel al-Qadhafi. Since the parliamentary elections of March 2006 the head of the government is the Secretary of the General People’s Committee (i.e. Prime Minister) Al-Baghadi Ali al-Mahmudi. The unicameral General People’s Congress (GPC) is the primary formal instrument of government and also the legislative body and has about 2,700 representatives, elected indirectly from sub-national people’s committees, people’s congresses and revolutionary committees. It is supposed to be the intermediary between the population and the regime and consists of the 600 secretaries of the local “basic popular congresses. The GPC’s power lays in the General Secretariat which forms the staff and advisory body of the head of government.

The GPC interacts with the General People’s Committee. The General People’s Committee is created by the GPC and consists of a general secretary and twenty ministries, which serves as a cabinet. In theory it is the executive organ of the state and replaces the old structure of ministries that existed before the 1969 revolution. The Secretary General of the GPC appoints the cabinet secretaries and during the annual GPC congress the appointments are confirmed. The secretaries are responsible for the daily management of their ministries, yet the actual authority is in the hands of Qadhafi, directly or either indirectly through manipulation of the population and the revolutionary committees. One can say that it is for this reason that the GPC does not operate effectively.

The GPC is also the Libyan legislative body on national level. Delegates to the GPC are usually chairmen of the Basic People's Congresses (BPC) and the branch or municipal people's committees. The number of delegates varies from session to session, but is normally circa 1000. The GPC normally gathers once a year – during two weeks in November or December – and it is the place where the plans, programs, and policies of the government are discussed and ratified. After ratification it is up to the people's committees, people's congresses, and trade unions and associations to thoroughly implement what has been agreed upon.

Local government was re-organised by Qadhafi in 1992 by creating 1,500 communes (mahallat). Each commune has been awarded a budget and some executive and legislative powers. The communes are supervised by revolutionary committees, which are headed by secretaries personally elected by Qadhafi.

Elections and electoral system 
The Libyan Parliament (Mu’tammar al-sha’ab al ‘âmm) does not allow any parties. The current number of members after the elections on 5 March 2006 is 468 of which 36 is female. There is no reliable information on the representation of minorities in the government. After the last parliamentary elections Miftah Muhammad Kuayba was elected as president of the parliamentary chamber and Bobakar Hwedde as the secretary general. As the media is strictly controlled by the state no further detailed information is released about the aftermath of the elections. Also the date for the next elections is yet unknown.

During the previous elections of the GPC, which occurred in two phases, namely on July 18, 2004 and on August 7, 2004, 864 members were elected out of 11,000 candidates. .

In theory, national elections in Libya are indirect through a hierarchy of people’s committees. The national legislative body, the GPC, is elected for a turn of three years. Voters elect representatives for the basic people’s congresses, which elect representatives to municipal people’s congresses, which elect the delegates for the GPC. On its turn the GPC chooses the General People's Committee. Suffrage and committee/congress membership are open to all Libyan citizens from the age of 18 and citizens in good legal and political standing. In practice, however, the revolutionary committees rigorously limit the democratic process by closely supervising committee and congress elections at the branch and municipal levels of governments. Revolutionary committees examine professional and revolutionary qualifications of all candidates for the basic people's congresses, professional people's committees, and the municipal General People's Committees. Only approved candidates can be eligible for election.

According to U.S governmental Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labour, the Revolutionary Committees are nominally extra-governmental organizations that regulate many aspects of citizens' lives. Although the Revolutionary Committees is a movement which is officially not part of Libya’s political system, it has developed significant power within the society. It became important in the late 1970’s, at the time when Qadhafi gave up his post as Secretary General of the GPC and all other official positions except for leader of the Revolution. At the same time the idea was created to make a split between the revolution and the People’s authority and civil administration. As leader of the revolution Qadhafi then called on Libyan revolutionaries to form committees in the entire country; in every public office, educational institution, armed force and in the Basis People’s Congress to “help the masses regain control over all sources of power”. Participation is not based on elections as everyone who believes in Qadhafi’s Green Book ideology can become a member of the Revolutionary Committees. When it comes to its role within the society it is characterised by three things. It directly has become Qadhafi’s link with the masses and his instrument to spread different ideas and programmes among the population; it has developed into a tool to wipe out the opposition (i.e. the enemies of the revolution) and it has a lot of power within society. Furthermore, it has become one of the main sources of elite recruitment in the Popular Committees at the Basic Popular Congresses level, and the GPC at the local and national levels. As a consequence of the rigorous activities by the Revolutionary committees to restrict opposition through mass provocation, much unhappiness and hostility has been created among Libyan society.

Background events to the current political situation
Since 1969 all the power is vested in the Revolution Command council (RCC) – led by Colonel Qadhafi until the 1980’s. In the late 1980’s Qadhafi, however, gave up his formal status as chief of the RCC, but gained absolute power as the head of a military dictatorship. While he has no official title he is the de facto chief of state and commander in chief of armed forces.

In the 1980s, competition arose between the official Libyan Government and military hierarchies and the revolutionary committees. An unsuccessful overthrow attempt in May 1984, allegedly supported and encouraged by Libyan exiles with internal support, led to a brief period of terror in which thousands of persons were imprisoned and an unknown number was executed. After the overthrow attempt Qadhafi used the revolutionary committees to look for alleged internal opponents, which created more radicalism inside the Libyan government. In 1988, as a consequence of rising public dissatisfaction about shortages in consumer goods and a setback in Libya's war with Chad, Qadhafi began to limit the power of the revolutionary committees and introduced some domestic reforms. During this time Qadhafi’s regime released several political prisoners and loosened restrictions on foreign travel for Libyan people. Also private businesses were again legalised to operate.

In the same period Qadhafi began to pursue an anti-Islamic fundamentalist domestic policy, viewing fundamentalism as a potential congregation point for adversaries of the regime. Qadhafi's security forces launched a defensive strike at suspected coup planners in the military and among the Warfallah tribe in October 1993. Consequently Libya faced massive arrests and government re-organisation, as well as public affirmations made by regime adversaries and allegations of torture and executions. The military, which was once Qadhafi's strongest support in the hierarchy power, became a potential threat in the 1990s. In 1993, following a failed overthrow attempt that involved senior military officers, Qadhafi began to periodically cleanse out the military; eliminating potential opponents and naming his own loyal followers in their place.

Qadhafi considers his country the most liberal in the region as the “Declaration of the Establishment of the People's Authority” states that direct popular authority is the basis for the political system in Libya, and there is no solitary leader in the country. But in reality the country is an authoritarian state, strictly governed according to the Green Book, and is ruled by Qadhafi who is supported by his trusted advisors and closest relatives from his home base in the Sirte region.

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IMPORTANT POLITICAL ISSUES

 

Terrorism and international sanctions 
Recently Libya has started advancing in its move of fostering friendly and cooperative relations with the West after being in a deep isolation since the 1970’s. Five years after having announced it was dismantling its weapons of mass destruction program, Libya was visited by U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleeza Rice, in the beginning of September 2008 –the first official visit by a U.S. Secretary of State since 1953. The U.S. gave an example to other Western states by improving ties with Libya and increasing cooperation on cultural, political and security areas. Consequently, in June 2009 Qadhafi for the first time paid a visit to its former-colonial ruler and now its biggest trading partner, Italy.

In the 1980’s Libya’s world isolation started due to several events. At the time the country maintained close ties with the former Soviet Union, which was its main arms supplier, and strongly supported and financed international terrorism. However, things went really downwards for Libya when sanctions were imposed on the country after several bombing attacks. After Libya was guilty of the assassination of a British policewomen, Yvonne Fletcher, at the Libyan embassy in London in 1984, the UK government stopped diplomatic ties with the country. In 1986 economic sanctions were imposed on the country by the U.S. after Libyan terrorists performed bombing attacks at a discotheque in West Berlin. In 1988 the Pan American flight 103 was blown up by Libyan terrorists over Lockerbie, Scotland, in which 270 people were killed, both American and British. In 1991 a U.S. acting Attorney General accused two men of placing the bomb, and charged them with murder. In 1992 UN sanctions were imposed on Libya and strengthened in 1993 until 1999 by Security Council Resolution 883 for not fulfilling its commitments regarding the UN Security Council Resolution 731, which requested for full compensation of the victims and acceptance of responsibility for the terror act. Besides that Qadhafi refused to extradite six suspects in the Lockerbie case. Consequently Libyan diplomats were expelled from different countries and in April 1995 the U.S. requested to tighten the UN sanctions on Libya, which was eventually rejected by the UN.

During the 1990’s Libya turned into a severe political economic isolation due to the imposed sanctions. The country experienced rising import costs as well as a massive inflation in its domestic economy. Dissatisfaction among the opposition was growing and in 1993 the military Islamic opposition performed an army coup and tried to murder Qadhafi. However, Qadhafi handled this army led coup and executed a military crackdown in Cyrenaica, the centre of the opposition.

Between 1995 and 1997 Qadhafi tried to improve Libya’s image at regional and international level by stopping relations with the Arab countries and improving its African relations. Qadhafi even tried to establish a United States of Africa, which eventually was not realised. As from 1999 Libya started its way towards acceptance by the Western world. In 1999 the UK restored its diplomatic ties with Libya after the country accepted its responsibility for murdering the British policewoman and paid compensation.

In 1999 two Libyans were surrendered as suspects in the Lockerbie case and a trial under Scottish law was established and in May 2000 a specially convened Scottish Court in The Netherlands found one of the two suspects guilty of murdering 270 people in the Pan American flight bombings and acquitted the second. Qadhafi, however, tried to claim their proof of innocence and the UK and the U.S. opted to not entirely lift the sanctions on the country until Libya would accept its responsibility in the case and pay compensation to the families. Eventually on the 12th of September, 2003 UN sanctions were lifted as a result of Libya’s compliance with the UN Security Council resolution. Libya accepted responsibility for the actions of its officials and paid compensation to the relatives of victims in the Lockerbie case.

In December 2003 Libya announced it was dismantling its program of weapons of mass destruction and its ballistic missile development programme, and promised to cooperate with the U.S., the UK, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in the future. The country started to restore its economic situation. By 2003 Libya renounced terrorism and claimed it no longer would support acts of international terrorism or other acts of violence towards civilians. Some institutional reforms were performed in the country during 2003, among which was the devolution of powers at local level. Consequently, in 2004 the U.S. lifted its trade, commercial and travel sanctions on the country and removed Libya from the U.S. terror list. In 2004 for the first time in over 25 year a meeting took place in New York between the U.S. secretary of State Colin Powell and Libya’s Foreign Minister Mohamed Shalgem. In 2006 the British Prime Minister also paid a visit to the country, the first since 1969.

In August 2009, the controversial Lockerbie case was again in the centre of media attention and draw criticism from the West. The only person convicted for the bombing was released from prison due to health reasons. While in his motherland Abdel Basset al-Megrahi was welcomed as a national heroe, his release was strongly opposed by the U.S., arguing Megrahi should have served out the life imprisonment sentence given to him. U.S' President Barack Obama called the release a "mistake". 

Freedom of press and freedom of association 
Freedom of press as well as freedom of speech is very restricted in Libya, in spite of the fact that Libyan law allows freedom of speech “within the limits of public interest and within the principles of the Revolution”. Article 178 of the penal code imposes the death sentence on people who negatively affect the country’s reputation and criticise the Libyan authorities.

The official news agency in the country is the Jamahiriya News Agency (JANA) and there is a state-run daily newspaper, but local Revolutionary Committees also publish some smaller newspapers. In general, the state owns and severely controls all media publication and the authorities do no permit any publication that is contrary to the regime policy. Some international publication, however, is allowed but constantly censored by the government and in some cases even blocked. Uncensored news can be received by satellite television, such as the pan-Arabic satellite TV stations that are allowed but always strictly watched over. These harsh rules do not apply to the organisations that are run by Saif al-Islam al-Qadhafi, the leader’s elder son. Saif al-Islam has criticised the government of being non-representative and called for freedom of press. His semi-governmental Qadhafi Development Foundation has contributed to the release of the six nurses in 2007 (see section “human rights”). In august 2007 Saif al-Islam’s Al-Ghad company launched the first private newspapers and a private television station in Libya, which have several times moderately criticised Libya’s policy and its officials. Recently in August 2008 in an address to a youth rally, he called for reforming Libya’s political system and for a strong civil society.

Independent journalists constantly face the risk of being persecuted, harassed, detained and often pressured to self-censorship.

Libya has no non-governmental organisations and law 19 on associations states that an organisation of this kind should be approved by a political body.

Human rights 
Despite modest human rights improvements since 2005 problems remain and the 2008 edition of Freedom in the World, a survey of Freedom’s House concerning political rights, civil rights and liberties, ranked Libya as being “not free” as did the 2008 version of Freedom of the press. The continued arrests, detention and torture of political prisoners, freedom of expression and violations of women’s rights are all issues that coincidence with Libya’s slow international reintegration. Although Libya is trying to improve its ties with the West by making the fight against terrorism and Libya’s energy resources the basis of Western relations, Human Rights Watch states that the protection of human rights and the rule of law should not be neglected.

Some major human rights issues concern political prisoners. Quite a few people engaged in peaceful political activity violating Law 7 – which bans groups that are based on a political ideology opposed to Qadhafi’s regime – have disappeared through the years or were sentenced to death. Libya’s well-known political prisoner Fathi al-Jahmi, was first arrested by internal security forces in October 2002 after he publicly criticised Qadhafi, called for free elections, freedom of press and the release of political detainees. A court sentenced him for five years in prison, but in March 2004 his release was demanded by an Appeal Court after U.S. Senator and currently Democratic Vice-President Joseph Biden raised the case before Qadhafi during a trip to Tripoli. In the next month al-Jahmi in an interview to U.S.-funded al-Hurra television called for free elections and called Qadhafi a dictator who he would not recognise as the country’s leader. After this al-Jahmi and his family were arrested by Libyan security agents and eventually put for a year in a psychiatric hospital, where he had no contact with family or lawyers and where the authorities neglected his medical care and contributed to the deterioration of his health.

Torture
Despite that torture is prohibited under Libyan law, Human Rights Watch and the U.S. government have recognised torture as a serious problem in the country. According to a Human Rights Watch’s research of April-May 2005, 15 out of 32 prisoners interviewed in five different detention facilities stated they were severely tortured during interrogations. The most well-known torture case concerns five Bulgarian nurses and a doctor from Palestine, who were arrested in 1999 and sentenced to death in May 2004 for intentionally infecting more than 438 Libyan children with the HIV virus in a hospital in the North-Eastern city of Benghazi. While fifty-six of the children died the medical workers claimed they were innocent, which was confirmed through an attestation of international health experts. In an interview with Human Rights Watch in May 2005 in Tripoli’s Jdeida prison, four of the six health workers affirmed they had confessed after being cruelly tortured with electricity and bitten by police dogs to confess. The workers were released in July 2007 after Libya’s Supreme Judicial Council changed the death sentence into life imprisonment and gave permission to the nurses and the doctor to return to Bulgaria to serve their remaining time. On July 23, 2007 the EU signed a memorandum of understanding concerning the release of the health workers. The next day they were accompanied back to Bulgaria by the former wife of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Cecilia Ciganer-Albeniz, and European External Relations Commissioner, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, and consequently their sentence was lifted by Bulgaria’s President, Georgy Parvanov.

Women’s rights
Due to several legal reforms over the past few decades the position of women in Libya is better than in some neighbouring countries. However, there are still serious problems concerning the approach of the government to particularly gender-based violence. As the government denies the overall problem and the country lacks effective laws, such as domestic violence law and laws against sexual aggression, and protective facilities, many women exposed to violence remain unprotected. For instance, according to a Human Rights Report of April-May 2005, women detained in social rehabilitation centres could not contest their detention before the court and had no right on legal representation. Also the conditions in which women are kept in these centres are awful, as is the treatment by the staff. Women find themselves abused, sexually harassed and detained in isolation.

In January 2006, Aisha al-Qadhafi, daughter of the leader, claimed in an interview with Human Rights that she was intended to investigate abuses in these specific facilities and in February 2006 the authorities stated they had created a committee to study the conditions in the facilities, as well as the well-being of the detained women. Until now the results of the committee’s work remain unclear.

Human trafficking
Libya is a transit country as well as a destination country for men and women mainly from Sub-Saharan Africa. People are being trafficked to the country for forced labour and sexual commercial exploitation, which is not prohibited by Libyan law. Despite the fact that most foreigners are economic migrants, often they become exposed to compulsion, due to large smuggling debts and their illegal status, which in many cases results to forced labour and prostitution. Though there are no official data, international observers have reported that about one to two percent of approximately 2 million foreigners in the country may be victim of human trafficking. According to the “Tier 2 Watch List” from June 2008 (U.S. State Department Trafficking in Persons Report) Libya’s authorities do not completely comply with the minimum standards to fully eliminate the trafficking of persons. In 2008 they did not release any official information on research or the prosecution of human trafficking offences, and failed to prove evidence of genuine efforts to address human trafficking. For this reason the country is placed on the U.S. Tier 2 Watch List. Moreover, in 2008 the government did too little to improve the protection –such as legal and psychological assistance- of victims of trafficking of persons. The prevention of trafficking –for instance by raising public awareness through campaigns- is also an issue the government does not tackle. In 2008 there were no actions taken by the government to reduce the demand for sexual commercial activities.

EU-Libya relations 
Currently Libya is the only African country that does not have any contractual relations with the EU. Since EU sanctions against the country were lifted in 2004 the EU has started an informal dialogue to tighten EU-Libya relations. Negotiations for an agreement were expected to start in 2008 after ties were restored in July 2007 following the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between the EU and Libya for the release of the six Bulgarian health workers -an action that was considered extremely important by the EU and the U.S. in improving ties with Libya.

Within the “Euro-Mediterranean-Partnership” – a partnership started by the EU in 1995 to strengthen its ties with countries of the Mediterranean region – Libya has an observer status and it is also eligible to receive some assistance within the framework of the European Neighbourhood Policy instrument, an instrument with which the EU aims to promote reform, the rule of law, stable democracies and prosperity in its neighbouring countries. In 2007, Libya received a modest amount of €2 million and in the same year the country started benefiting from bilateral assistance.

The current co-operation between the EU and Libya is mainly based on the migration issue and HIV/AIDS. Two projects exist with regard to migration under the Aeneas programme – a programme of the European Commission to provide financial and technical assistance to third countries in the field of migration and asylum – and the country also benefits from EU’s Migrations and Asylum instrument. Concerning HIV/AIDS, in 2005 an Action Plan for Benghazi has been created to deal with the consequences of the major HIV infection in that city.

In February 2008 the European Commission announced its plans to establish the first Framework Agreement with Libya, with the aim to strengthen political, social, economic, commercial and cultural ties. The framework is supposed to include a free-trade agreement that aims to open the road for Libya to become WTO-member. On top of the free-trade agreement cooperation in the field of energy, counter-terrorism and illicit immigration will be the main points for further cooperation between the EU and Libya. EU’s Commissioner for External Relations and Neighbourhood Policy Ferrero-Waldner stated that it is necessary to have such a framework as Libya is an important country in the Mediterranean region and in Africa. The country is one the world’s biggest oil-producers, which is important for the EU as it intends to diversify its natural resources. Moreover, close cooperation in stricter control of illicit immigration from Africa -mainly of high concern for Italy and Malta- is also an important objective. Therefore, the three countries gathered in a Joint Commission in Malta on 30 October 2008 to discuss the migration problem. A meeting including all the three countries will be held in December 2008 where issues related to cooperation on illegal immigration will be thoroughly discussed.

A project initiated by French President Sarkozy to give a new dimension to regional cooperation –the so-called Mediterranean Union- was officially launched on 13 July, 2008 in Paris. Among the members of the Mediterranean Union are the 27 EU states and the 12 Mediterranean countries that are members of the EU's Barcelona Process, in which Libya has observer status. One of the main goals of the Union is the creation of a free trade area by 2010. Qadhafi was the only leader who refused to attend the launch of the Union. He stated that despite he supports good relations with the EU he will not accept integration into the Union as it will create a split between north African countries and the rest of the member states of the African Union that consist of 53 states. In addition, the participation of the African countries in the Mediterranean Union is a violation of the resolutions of the African Union. Qadhafi also claimed the EU wants to dominate the Mediterranean neighbors who used to be colonised by European countries.

Relations with the U.S.
The U.S. started to restore its diplomatic relations with Libya in 2004 after the country gave up its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 and economic sanctions against Libya were lifted. In June 2004 a liaison office was opened in Tripoli, which was eventually transformed into an actual embassy in May 2006. In the same year the country was removed from the U.S. terrorist list as it had not sponsored international terrorist activities in the previous six months and assured it would stop supporting international terrorism in the future. Consequently, ties were brought to a normal level.

For many years the U.S. has considered Libya as one of its main enemies and Qadhafi was considered the leading supporter of a terrorist state. In September 2008 a historic visit was made by U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, to Tripoli –the first visit by a U.S. Secretary of State since 1953. The trip was organised as a reward for the country’s renounce of terrorism and its willingness to stop its weapons of mass destruction programme. According to State Department spokesman Sean McCormack “the trip marked a new chapter in U.S.-Libyan relations”. Rice herself stated that “when countries are prepared to make strategic changes, the U.S. is prepared to respond” and now the two countries are negotiating on a “military memorandum of understanding” with regard to cooperation in fighting international terrorism. On the 31st of October, 2008 an executive order was signed by President Bush to restore the immunity of Libya’s government from the terror-related law cases and cancel ongoing compensation cases.

Furthermore, the trip included negotiations to increase mutual cooperation at a political, security, energy and cultural level. Human rights issues were also raised during Rice’s trip yet she did not reveal whether she pressed for the release of Libya’s most prominent political prisoner, Fathi al-Jami. According to Libyan Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mohammed Abdel-Rahman Shalgam, “the trip proves that Libya has changed and now a mutual dialogue and understanding between the two countries has been established”.

During her visit Rice spoke to Libyan Foreign Minister about an agreement for trade and investment, which will improve investments from American business firms as the country is expanding its infrastructure, telecommunication and banking sectors, as well as its energy sector that will strongly benefit from the improved relations. Libyan officials has stated that the improved ties will result in more deals with American oil companies, despite that through the years European companies have had more access to Libya’s energy sector.

U.S. oil firms were first permitted to operate in Libya after U.S. economic sanctions were eased on the 23rd of April 2004 and the U.S. government allowed companies to invest in the Libyan oil industry and buy its oil. U.S. financial services as banks were also again permitted to participate in such transactions and finance them. The same day the National Oil Company exported oil to the U.S. –the first shipment in over 20 years. When in September 2004 President Bush signed “Executive Order 12543” to lift the remaining sanctions against the country, the way for U.S. oil corporations was opened to sign new contracts or renew old ones. With this order restrictions on the importation of oil refined in Libya no longer existed and some assets were unblocked.

The visit raised much criticism on Rice in the U.S., as compensation through an agreed fund into which money would be paid was not completed before the visit, and the situation of major political prisoners in Libya was not resolved. The .8 billion fund will provide compensation to victims of the 1988 Pan Am bombings and the 1986 Libyan bombings of a Berlin disco. An additional amount of 0 million is provided to Libyan victims of the 1986 U.S. air strikes on Libya in reaction to the disco bombing – a time in which relations between the two countries were at an all-time low. Recently, on the 1st of November Libya has completed its payments of .5 billion into the compensation fund, marking the final stage in the normalisation of U.S.-Libya relations, and opening the way towards a continued partnership.

MENA (Middle East and North Africa) 
Current relations with Arab neighbours are strained. Although Qadhafi tries to maintain normal relations with Arabic countries, in the recent years he has turned his back to his Middle East neighbours by more strongly identifying his country with the African region. In recent years Qadhafi became softer on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, by favouring a “one-state solution” called “Israetine” were both parties can live together without war, as he suggested in January 2003. Once an advocate of a Pan-Arab unity in the 1980’s, Qadhafi’s Arab relations severely came under pressure in March 2003 following a summit of the Arab League. He stated that Arab nationalism and unity no longer existed and threatened to leave the League. His main issue was the position regarding the U.S. war in Iraq of the Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, which he accused of cooperating with a country that would cause an increase of international terrorism by continuing the Iraq war.

Relations with Africa 
For some years Qadhafi’s foreign policy is strongly concentrated on the African continent. Since the late 1990’s the country is a supporter of Pan-African unity. In particular it has strong ties with Sub-Saharian Africa. It was involved in several internal African conflicts, such as in Congo, Sudan (where it tried to pursue a mediation role), Somalia, and the Central African Republic. Moreover, it tries to expand its influence in the region by providing financial assistance to poor countries, such as Zimbabwe, and humanitarian assistance, for instance, to Darfur refugees. Libya also exerts influence through the African Union that was created in 2002 following Qadhafi’s idea to follow the concept of the European Union to tighten regional integration and security cooperation. It is perceived as a constructive key player in African internal affairs and international relations and the country wants to establish closer political and economic ties with the country. It is already Africa 4th largest exporter as Libyan exports contributes to 10,1% of total African exports

International membership
Libya is a member of the United Nations and in October 2007 the country was awarded a seat at the UN Security Council. In January 2008 Libya took over the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council, which officially marked the country’s return to international politics. The country is member to several other international and regional organisations, such as the Group of 77, International Atomic Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, and has observer status in the World Trade Organisation. Some of major international treaties to which Libya is a party are the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, Chemical Weapons Convention and the Geneva protocol – a treaty prohibiting the first use of chemical and biological weapons. The country is also party to several treaties regarding terrorism such as the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism and Suppression of Terrorist Bombings.

Energy issue 
Libya’s economy depends heavily on revenues from its oil sector. According to the World Bank about 95% of export earning comes from hydrocarbon exports, which is approximately one-quarter of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 60% of public sector wages. According to the Oil and Gas Journal Libya has 41.5 billion barrels of total proven oil reserves from January 2007, which makes the country the owner of the highest amount of proven oil reserves in Africa, followed by Nigeria and Algeria. In 2006, oil exports went mainly to Italy (38%), Germany (18%), Spain (8%), and the U.S. (7%).

Given the fact that Libya has a rather small population (just over 6 million) and high revenues from the oil sector, the country has one of the highest per capita GDP in Africa. However, the lower levels in society do not benefit from these revenues as much of it is being seized by corrupt officials. To end this situation, in a speech in September 2008 Colonel Qadhafi announced he was favoring free market reforms so that in the near future every Libyan citizen can benefit from the oil revenues. It is yet to acknowledge whether this will be put in to practice.

Thanks to the domestic economic reforms in the past five years and the lifting of U.S. sanctions Libya managed to attract more foreign direct investment particularly in the energy sector. International investors are very interested in the country as an energy supplier. This among other things is due to the announcement of the National Oil Company –the state-owned oil corporation- to practically double its oil production to 3 million barrels per day by 2015. Moreover, major oil companies seek the exploration of oil and gas fields in the country that until now remains highly under-explorated (merely 25% of the country has explorations agreements) due to the former sanctions.

Libya aims to expand its oil exploration in the future years. In November 2005 energy experts claimed one the biggest oil discoveries for some years was made in the Murzuq Basin by Repsof YPF (Spanish oil company) together with partners as Total (French oil company), Norsk Hyrdo, and OMV (Austria). Exploration in the Murzuq Basin is also led by Italy’s oil company ENI together with several South Korean Companies.

Libya’s natural gas reserves are slightly less numerous than its oil reserves. According to the Oil and Gas Journal the country holds 52,7 trillion of cubic feet of proven gas reserves as from January 2007, making it the 4th holder of gas reserves in the region (followed by Nigeria, Algeria and Egypt). In the upcoming years the country wants to increase its gas exports, particularly to Europe. With the Western Libya Gas Project –launched in October 2004- Libya’s National Oil Company jointly with the Italian ENI has expanded its gas exports to Italy, Spain and other countries. In 2007, some 280 billion of cubic feet of natural gas was exported from the coast of Libya via the 370-mile "Greenstream" underwater natural gas pipeline through Italy and further on to the rest of Europe. Recently in July 2008, Russian gas monopoly Gazprom and world’s largest natural gas corporation wanted to strike a deal to buy up Libya’s entire gas production. Gazprom has already bought several licences for Libyan gas fields in joint ventures with ENI and Germany’s oil company Wintershall. In a trip to Russia by Colonel Qadhafi in November 2008 talks were held on gas and oil deals, yet Libya (together with Algeria) still competes with Russia for delivering gas to south Europe, thus it reacted negatively on the deal of July 2008.

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OPPOSITION GROUPS AND EXILED PARTIES

 

There are several opposition groups outside Libya, most of them being in exile in Egypt. Practically none of them have the means to have an influence in Libyan politics.

The most organised group is the National Front for the Salvation of Libya (NFSL), which was established in October 1981. Before the fall of the Numerei regime it was situated in Sudan. The main aim of this opposition movement is to overthrow the leader. This is mainly done through media campaigns and the formation of alliances with other political opposition groups. In this framework the National Conference for the Libyan Opposition (NCLO) was created in June 2005 in London, which consists of 7 opposition organisations, lead by the NFSL and its leaders. At this conference some 300 members of the exiled Libyan opposition gathered to call for the removal of Libya’s leader and the return of the country's 1951 constitution.

After its establishment the NFSL started a massive campaign to depose Qadhafi, as well as a radio station, a bimonthly Arabic magazine “Al Inqad”, a military training camp and the Libyan National army – created in 1987. These commando forces tried to assassinate Qadhafi in May 1984, but did not succeed as NFSL’s leader, Ahmed Ibrahim Ihwas, was imprisoned when he tried to enter Libya by passing the borders of Tunisia. A second unsuccessful attempt was made in 1987. Nevertheless, the group rejects military and authoritarian rule, and has called for a democratic state with free elections, constitutional norms, a free press, and separation of powers.

Furthermore, there exist several other opposition groups such as the Libyan National Group (1976); the Libyan Democratic National Movement (1979); the Libyan Democratic National Group (1981); the Libyan National Movement (1980); the Libyan Democratic Authority (1993); the Libyan Conservatives Party (1996) and the Freedom Party (1980). Most of them are in exile and as the authorities try to control them through secret service networks, these groups are practically insignificant within Libya itself. The NSFL has regularly reported attacks or killings by the Libyan’s secret service against opponents of Qadhafi abroad.

Moreover, the most prominent opposition groups within Libya have been Islamists, mainly Islamic militants have been posing a more serious threat to the regime. These groups include the 1991 Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) and the less well-known and smaller groups such as Libyan Islamic Martyrs movement and Supporters of Allah.

The LIFG tried to organise all of the militant groups under its division to create a more united front against the regime. These groups came into open conflict with secret security services in the mid 90s and also made a number of assassination attempts against the leader, most notably in 1996 and 1998. The regime stroke back by launching a campaign to get rid of these groups permanently, and over 1,000 people died in fights between armed forces of the regime and Islamic militants between 1995 and 1998. By the end of the 90s, Qadhafi had nearly destroyed all the organised Islamic opposition within the country. Yet in April 2006 demonstrations were held in the east of the country in Benghazi by Islamists against a government organised demonstration – a sign of the opposition’s remaining and possibly influential activities.

Currently the remaining militant groups find themselves settled within the Benghazi region. These groups are believed to consist of so-called units of about two persons, which do not have any skills or resources whatsoever to launch serious attacks against the authorities. Given the fact that Libya is reintegrating into international politics and international investments are flowing back into the country, the authorities are being very cautious on the terrorism issue. Domestic security measures to fight against terrorism are being tightened by Qadhafi, which includes a complete rejection of politicised radical Islamists that try to have an influence and project their perspectives.

A religious opposition group that is perceived as non-militant, yet radical, is the Muslim Brotherhood, which was created in 1928 in Egypt and is a fundamental promoter of religious government and the inclusion of Islamic norms and values throughout the entire society. The Libyan branch was officially forbidden in the mid-‘80s but in 2003, according to unknown sources, it was said to continue its activities from Egypt. Considering that Libya’s law affirms that no one is allowed to be involved in an organised political party or association, Libya’s authorities arrested 152 members of the Muslim Brotherhood in 1998, and detained them for eight years. In 2006 they were all released. As the Muslim Brotherhood operates secretly, no information is available on its program and mandate. Its main objective, however, is national reform in politics, society culture and economy. It also continues its fight for human rights, in particular for the release of political prisoners.

In the past, Libya's opposition has been commonly unorganised and split up by large opposing views and positions. It is quite doubtful whether their divergence will let them be able to pose a consistent challenge and possible threat to the authorities. In addition, in early November 2008 political opposition riots in Kufrah – a remote corner in Libya – showed that such groups do not form any threat to the central government because Libya is able to easily isolate them. The clashes between members of one of Libya’s largest tribes – Tabu – started when the government enforced “discriminatory laws” against the tribe, by depriving them of their citizenship and fundamental rights. Consequently tribe members started to set fire against the local government after which the government came with military units from the capital to stop the rebels.

It is remarkable that apart from the demonstrations and upheavals organised by Islamists or specific tribes, the broader opposition within the country remains intimidated by the authorities, and can therefore been seen as if practically non-existent.

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