European Forum

Preliminary election results Tunisia: Ennahda wins, PDP loses

With the first districts declaring final results for the Sunday elections, the political landscape that will form the constituent Assembly of Tunisia is slowly emerging. Most of the 217 seats will go to moderate Islamist party Ennahda: projections of the numbers of votes that Rachid Ghanouchi’s party has received vary between 40% and 50%. The greatest disappointment is the secular centre-left Progressive Democratic Party (PDP), which many believed to be Ennahda’s main rival, but which will probably come in fourth or even lower.

Ennahda wins
The biggest winner of the first free elections in Tunisia since Ben Ali was deposed in the uprising that would start the Arab spring is Ennahda, a moderate Islamist party that is led by Rachid Ghanouchi. Under Ben Ali’s regime, the party was forbidden, but retained a low-level grassroots organization. Many of its members have been jailed, which explains the high participation of women in the organization; they took over for their imprisoned husbands. The party wants the sharia to form the basis of a multi-party, secular state and has pledged to work together with other parties. It usually compares itself with Turkey’s ruling AK Party.

PDP loses
The biggest surprise of the elections was the electoral defeat of the progressive centre-left PDP. They had been consistently polling as the second largest party of the country and were seen as the main rivals to Ennahda. The Ben Ali regime didn’t prohibit the PDP, making it one of the few opposition parties that could operate in public. The leader of the PDP, Maya Jribi and the only female party leader in the country, has admitted defeat.

Ettajdid/PDM
The Ettajdid movement was a communist party before 1993 in Tunisia and severely repressed. After abandoning communism, Ben Ali allowed the party limited freedom to participate in elections. After the fall of the Ben Ali regime, the party gained a ministerial seat in the transitional government. For the elections, the party formed a secularist alliance with three smaller secular left-wing parties and five independent initiatives, the Demcoratic Modernist Pol (PDM). The PDM sees a strict division between state and religion as a fundamental basis for the new constitution and rejects cooperation with Islamist parties.

FDTL/Ettakol
The FDTL (often reffered to as Ettakol) is a secular social democratic party and intends to fight for the youth and women of Tunisian society. The party was severely repressed under the dictatorship of Ben Ali, but was given a ministerial seat in the transitional government that formed after its fall. They gave up this seat within days when they found the old regime too strongly represented in the new government. The party relies heavily on grassroots members and social media in its activities.

NDI observer mission notes “festive atmosphere” and “extraordinary achievement”
The U.S. National Democratic Institute (NDI) fielded one of the many observer mission to the elections (in total over 10.000 local and international observers were in place). The NDI noted that the elections had taken place in a generally orderly fashion, with most voters being able to cast their ballots without problems. However, the large turnout did present some organisational problems, with some voters having to wait in line for over five hours. The NDI did note that most voters did not mind having to wait long, as there was a festive atmosphere at most polling stations. Furthermore, the NDI noted problems related to unregistered voters. The High Independent Authority for Elections (ISIE) had set up 900 polling stations especially for these voters, with voters being required to send an SMS to receive information where they would be able to vote. Not only was the system temporarily down in the morning due to overwhelming demand, but some voters received information they had to go to polling stations that were far away, in some cases even across the country. The counting of the votes also took very long as most counters were very conscientious but were not provided with standardized counting sheets. In general, the NDI lauded the achievement of the ISIE, especially so shortly after the fall of the dictatorship and with minimal experience.


Results

In total, the constituent assembly will be composed of 217 seats, approximately one representative per 60.000 Tunisians.
Turnout among registered voters was around 70%, but unregistered voters were also allowed to vote. Total turnout is estimated to have been around 85%.
With over 10% of Tunisians living abroad, 18 seats have been reserved for the Tunisian Diaspora. Nine of these were won by Ennahda.

Sources: All Voices,  BBC, BBC, EUobserver, NDI press statement, NDI report.