Report on political situation Western Balkans
16 September 2005
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Since the Dayton peace agreement signed in 1995, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) can hardly be called a viable state with an international community overruling the decisions of elected officials and a complicated political system. Further integration of the country is hampered by the power of nationalists, since the reform-oriented parties lost the elections in October 2002. The three dominant nationalist parties took power in a coalition with several smaller parties after months of long talks and the rejection by the Office of the High Representative of a number of candidates for ministerial positions.
EU integration is one of the main political objectives of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In November 2003 the European Commission produced a Feasibility Study, which concluded that negotiations on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement should start once Bosnia and Herzegovina has addressed 16 key priorities. Political leaders of Bosnia-Herzegovina, the Croat-Muslim Federation and the Republika Srpska are working to get the country ready for this.
One of the main obstacles to start these talks is the failure to strengthen state government en its institutions. Recently substantial progress has been made in forming a joint army and Defense Ministry, when both entities parliaments voted in favour of this measure. The next step is for Bosnia-Herzegovina’s Council of Ministers to prepare a new defense law and budget. At the moment the main issue is the reform of the police along non-ethnic administrative lines. By 15 September BiH must present a plan for these reforms. The Bosnian Serbs consider the proposed police reform unconstitutional and a threat to the sovereignty of the Republika Srpska.
Next parliamentary and presidential elections are planned for October 2006.
Sister parties:
- Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina (SDP B&H) (full member SI)
- Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) (consultative status SI)
Read more: country update Bosnia-Herzegovina
Serbia and Montenegro/ Kosovo
Serbia
After the early parliamentary elections in December 2003 the Serbian parliament approved the government led by Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica in early March 2004. The minority government was formed by representatives from the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), G17 Plus, the coalition of New Serbia and the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO-NS) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and was supported by the controversial Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS).
On 28 August 2005 the SDP left the government as a result of a conflict with Kostunica over the proposal of privatization of the state-run Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS), as requested by the International Monetary Fund. The SDP wants greater involvement of trade unions in the process. Vlatko Sekulović, the Deputy Minister for Foreign Economic Relations, condemned the party and sided with the government. According to SDP sources, Labour Minister Slobodan Lalovic said he will act as an independent deputy in the parliament.
The new situation triggered speculations about the possibility of early elections. A recent opinion poll shows the ultra-nationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS) has the strongest support with 31.5 % per cent of respondents said they would vote for SRS, if the elections were held now. President Boris Tadic’s Democratic Party was second with 25.7 %, followed by the Power of Serbia -- a movement led by the businessman Bogoljub Karic -- with 15.9 %. The ruling Democratic Party of Serbia was fourth with 11.2 %.
In several media it was reported that SDP party leader Nebosja Covic is negotiating with Slobodan Milosevic’s Socialist Party of Serbia to form a party. The main obstacle for the SDP is said to be the hardliners in SPS. However, Covic said that there are also good people in the party and stated, "I think it is possible our two parties can be transformed to one party, named Social Democratic Party".
Key issues in Serbia at the moment are: the status of Kosovo, the future of the State Union and co-operation with the International Tribunal in the Hague. Progress in these areas has been slow and made the European Union decide to postpone the Feasibility Report, which looks into the possibility to open negotiations on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA). In April 2005 the Commission concluded however “Serbia and Montenegro is sufficiently prepared to negotiate an SAA”.
Sister parties:
- Democratic Party of Serbia (DS) (Consultative status SI)
- Social Democratic Party of Serbia (SDP) (Consultative status SI)
Read more: country update Serbia
Montenegro
Montenegro’s politics and population is divided over the question whether Montenegro should stay in one state with Serbia or not. The Belgrade Agreement that led to the establishment of Serbia and Montenegro in February 2003 provided for shared central institutions and a single market, and put off a possible referendum on state sovereignty in Montenegro for at least three years. The signing led to criticism on the government and a call for early elections, which were held in October 2002.
The governing coalition of Democratic Party of Socialist (DPS) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), united in the Democrtaic List for European Montenegro lead by Milo Djukanovic won the elections, like in 2001. The Together for Changes coalition (SNP, SNS and NS) remained powerful, gathering 38.4% of the votes. The Liberal Alliance, like in the 2001 elections came in third.
The victory of Djukanovic and his allies came for many as a surprise. Analysts attributed the result to public dissatisfaction and anger with the opposition and the international community. Public remembered the opposition’s close ties with the Milosevic regime. Furthermore, people were fed up with proponents of closer ties between Serbia and Montenegro. Many liberals backed the pro-independence party of Djukanovic out of disappointment with their own Liberal Party that went (temporarily) into coalition with pro-Yugoslav forces.
Montenegrin President Filip Vujanovic announced on 21 August 2005 that he would initiate talks with all parties in parliament about the long-expected independence referendum initiative. He reiterated that unless Serbia accepts a proposal to restructure the Serbia-Montenegro federal union into a looser confederation of internationally recognised independent states, Podgorica would proceed with organising the referendum early next year. Montenegrin officials think that they have more chance to succeed with the necessary reforms without Serbia and want to head for EU integration on their own. The EU has been against disintegration.
Sister parties:
- Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro (DPS) (Consultative status SI)
- Social Democratic Party of Montenegro (SDP) (Full member SI)
Read more: country update Montenegro
Kosovo
The political debate in Kosovo is dominated by the discussion on the provinces final status. Opinions on this issue are generally divided along ethnic lines, Albanians in favour of independence and Serbs against independence. The UN-led ‘Standards for Kosovo’ process was launched in December 2003. Following the March 2004 riots, the process was prioritised to pay particular attention to the Standard of building a safe multicultural society. United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan appointed in June 2005 Ambassador Kai Eide to review the Standards. The conclusions of this review, expected in autumn 2005, might open the way to starting status discussions.
On 23 October 2004 Assembly elections took place. Until that time, the country had been carved up between the three main Kosovar-Albanian parties: the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK). Despite growing dissatisfaction with the political leadership these parties remained the biggest after the elections. The LDK won 46%, the PDK 27% and the AAK 8%. The only new party of any significance is ORA of famous editor and publisher Veton Surroi, scoring 6%.
Almost a month after the elections a new government coalition was formed by LDK and AAK. The post of president of Kosovo is held by Ibrahim Rugova, who is also leader of the LDK, while the post of prime minister went to the head of AAK, Ramush Haradinaj. Haradinaj was a commander of the rebel Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) during the insurgency against Serbian forces in 1998 and 1999. Following his indictment for war crimes by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, the Prime Minister resigned in March 2005. He was replaced by Bajram Kosumi (AAK).
No official SI sister party.
Read more: country update Kosovo
Albania
The Democratic Party (DP) of Sali Berisha has won the 3 July general elections with 56 mandates in the 140-seats parliament. Even if this is not enough to secure an absolute majority, the DP can count on 81 seats, because other rightist parties will support it, including the Republicans, with 11 seats. The electoral process was slow, with many run-offs due to irregularities. The OSCE has welcomed the completion of the election process in Albania. In a special declaration issued on 1 September, OSCE Chairman-in-office Dimitrij Rupel, said two months of hard work have finally yielded results.
Outgoing Prime Minister Fatos Nano recognised defeat for the first time at the end of August when official results were announced. His Socialist Party won 42 seats. The Social Democrats of Skender Gjinushi won 7 seats, while the new party of former Socialist PM Ilir Meta, the Socialist Union for Integration, gathered 4 seats.
The first parliamentary session opened on 2 September, following a go-ahead from President Alfred Moisiu. Berisha, 60, will head Albania’s new government. He has already chosen his team, reducing the number of ministries to 14 from the current 20. A cardiologist by training, and the personal doctor of communist leader Enver Hodxa, Berisha became Albania’s first elected post-communist president in 1992. He was forced to step down in 1997 following the collapse of investment schemes that sparked violent riots in one of Europe’s poorest countries. Since then, the country has been governed by Socialists-dominated governments.
The new prime minister has pledged to speed up reforms needed for EU and NATO integration, to fight corruption and mass poverty, and to help small business. Berisha’s comment on the elections was: “The vote succeeded in achieving a clean and clear change of government that did not plunge the country into a Georgia or Ukraine scenario of stormy street protests”.
Albania started negotiations for Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU in February 2003, but has still not concluded them. This is arguably due to poor governance and widespread corruption.
Sister parties:
- Social Democratic Party (PSD) (Full member SI)
- Socialist Party of Albania (SPA) (Full member SI)
Read more: country update Albania
FYR Macedonia
The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) is headed by PM Vlado Buckovski. He is ahead of a coalition of his own Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDUM), the Liberal Democratic Party, and the predominantly Albanian Democratic Union of Integration (DUI).
The DUI stems from a rebel group, which engaged in an armed conflict with the government in 2002. This conflict came to an end with strong intermediation of the EU. The so-called Ohrid Agreement was achieved. Under this agreement, the administrative reform and the local elections were the last requirement to the government. The administrative reform was implemented in 2004 but challenged by a referendum initiated by the rightist and nationalist VMPRO-DMNE party.
The referendum did not succeed, which paved way for local elections in the spring of 2005. As the elections were widely considered as a test to the political stability of the democratic institutions in the country, it was unfortunate that they did not go on smoothly: there were two rounds, which on their own had many run-offs because of irregularities. The ethnic peace has been achieved but the country is far from living in good integration with its major communities. Even with all the prescriptions of the Ohrid Agreement, the ethnic Albanians and ethnic Macedonians have little communication among each other.
Despite that the SDUM has the biggest number of mayors, it lost significantly compared to the support at previous elections. The next general elections are expected in the autumn of 2006.
FYROM has signed and Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU. It has also officially applied for full EU membership and awaits the opinion of the European Commission in October.
The constitutional name of FYROM is Republic of Macedonia. This name is challenged by Greece who says that Macedonia is the name of one of its provinces. Greece blocks the name in the United Nations, which is the reason why currently FYROM is being used. The United States recognized the name Republic of Macedonia recently. As Greece is a member of the EU, it is unthinkable that the EU will follow this example. Recently Greece even threatened to block the EU membership candidacy of Macedonia because of the name dispute.
Sister party:
- Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDUM) (Full member SI)
Read more: country update Macedonia
Edited by Matilda Nahabedian and Kirsten Meijer
