European Forum

Armenian President steps up criticism of Turkey; rapprochement at a freeze

The rapprochement between two estranged neighbours Turkey and Armenia that started last year with a historic football match between the two countries’ teams attended by both Presidents jointly in Yerevan, seems to be losing its momentum to the point where it is questionable if the past year has really meant anything at all.

Football diplomacy
September 2008 saw the historic Armenia-Turkey football match in Yerevan, to which Turkish President Abdullah Gül accepted his Armenian counterpart’s invitation, resulting in the first-ever visit of a (modern) Turkish head of state to (modern) Armenia. After the visit ended with no major incidents, many on both sides of the border were filled with optimism at the possibility of re-establishment of diplomatic relations and re-opening of the border between the estranged neighbours; a border that was closed by Turkey in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh war. For the first time the two countries seemed ready to discuss the normalisation of relations with no pre-conditions, making the re-opening of their border a real possibility.

A roadmap 

Many meetings and optimistic official statements later, not much seems to have changed. In fact, the only tangible agreement reached (on April 22nd) between the two countries – a roadmap towards normalising their relations - is as of yet undisclosed to the public and remains a controversial subject. It is mainly controversial because no-one seems to be sure of what exactly was agreed.

One of the disagreements concerns Turkey’s pre-condition of the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan before the Turkish-Armenian border can be opened. Although throughout the past year it seemed that the countries were ready to discuss an unconditional normalisation of relations, Turkish officials, including PM Erdogan, have lately refused.

Also, the Armenian opposition has been accusing the Armenian authorities of agreeing to establish a commission consisting of Armenian and Turkish historians, to research the nature of massacres of Armenians in the Ottoman empire at the beginning of the last century, that Armenians refer to as genocide. The harsh criticism of the endeavour is based on the assumption that something is subject to research if there is uncertainty as to its nature, which makes the commission a travesty for many Armenians. The issue becomes more controversial when one considers its timing. The agreement was signed on the eve of the Armenians’ remembrance day of the above-mentioned massacres. On that day, US President Barack Obama was planned to release a sympathetic statement (as many US Presidents before him) in which, it was speculated, he could refer to the events as genocide, following a promise to the Armenian-American community throughout his election campaign. The suddenly reached agreement and Turkey’s hints that a genocide reference would stump the process that was finally underway, has, according to some, played a role in Obama’s refusal to call the events genocide in his April 24th statement.

Immediately after that, Turkish officials reiterated the pre-condition for the normalisation of relations (i.e. the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh) with renewed vigour and things cooled down.

Meanwhile, President Sarkisian’s administration was accused at home of selling out on the country’s national interest while not getting anything in return. The gravity of the subject is demonstrated by one of the ruling coalition partners, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation ‘Dashnaktutiun’, who cited failed Turkey-policy as a reason for the party’s exit from the ruling coalition.

A new impetus or a screeching halt
On October 14th 2009 the return match between the Armenian and Turkish national football teams is planned to take place in Turkey. Turkish President Gül reciprocated, inviting Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian to the match. In a latest development, however, the ‘football diplomacy’ seems to be under threat. Some days ago, President Sarkisian stated he will, in fact, refuse the invitation unless Turkey takes ‘real’ steps to reopen the border between the two countries.

Today he stepped up his criticism, saying: ‘for one year, Armenia and Turkey held negotiations and agreed on two documents … But since then some political forces in Turkey have been trying to set conditions and link the establishment of diplomatic relations with Armenia with the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Armenia’s relations with Azerbaijan.’ He continued: ‘we do accept that Turkey is a big country, we do accept its role both in the region and the entire world … But at the same time, we Armenians are an independent nation, and it is inadmissible to talk to us in the language of preconditions. Any tough step brings about counter-steps.’ He did not elaborate on the warning.

The statements are in stark contrast to Sarkisian’s cautious optimism towards relations with Turkey until recently.

That frustration was also marked in the US, when 82 pro-Armenian members of the U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday sent a joint letter to President Barack Obama expressing concern about “Turkish back-pedalling” on the still unpublicized “roadmap” deal that was announced on April 22. “Turkey's public statements and actions since April 24th stand in sharp contrast to this agreement and undermine U.S. policy that normalization take place without preconditions,” the letter said.

Turkey’s stance, as worded by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, is that the country is still resolute about normalizing the relations, but he reiterated that it wanted to see the same determination from the international community and especially from Yerevan on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

It seems that if anything is going to happen in the normalisation of the Turkish-Armenian relations it will have to happen before October. The Armenian media have noted with some bitterness the loophole in President Sarkisian’s statements - what, after all, is a ‘real’ step – which could allow him to still attend the football match in Turkey. If, however, nothing happens – as seems likely at this point - it will mark a definitive set-back to starting positions, and will wipe out a year’s work.

Sources: Armenialiberty.com, Hürriyet Turkish Daily news; source photo: Times Online