European Forum

One year anniversary of the Georgia-Russia war

Exactly one year after the war broke out between Russia and Georgia, many issues remain unresolved. South Ossetia and Georgia’s other rebel state Abkhazia unilaterally declared independence, tens of thousands of Georgians are still displaced and political tensions are rising between Georgia and Russia.

Competing ceremonies are honouring the hundreds of war victims. To mark the first anniversary bonfires were blazed today in the Georgian capital as well as in other cities. Georgia is also holding a nationwide minute of silence. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, will make an address to the nation. South Ossetia plans a march and a candlelight ceremony in the capital Tskhinvali, where Russia has put its troops on alert.

Today a year ago Georgian forces launched an assault on South Ossetia after days of clashes with separatists and years of escalating tensions with Moscow, drawing a devastating Russian counter-strike that ended five days later on 12 August.

War consequences
By the time the EU brokered a cease-fire on 12 August, nearly 400 civilians had died and nearly 200,000 people had been displaced. Russia agreed to pull back its forces to pre-war positions. But it boosted its military presence in both breakaway regions South Ossetia and Abkhazia and recognized both as independent states. Twelve months later, Amnesty International says some 30,000 people, mostly ethnic Georgians, remain displaced by the conflict.

Accusations after the war 
One year on each side has its own version of the conflict. Georgia claims Russian forces had already begun crossing through a tunnel into South Ossetia before Georgian forces were ordered to act. In Tbilisi's view the war was Russia's way of punishing it for turning to the West; in particular, seeking NATO membership.

Moscow, however, has a different narrative, one in which Russia, according to the spokesperson of the Foreign Ministry, Andrei Nesterenko, acted to counter Georgia's "barbarian aggression." Nesterenko said that Georgian President "Saakashvili's regime carried out a foul, inhuman attack on [South Ossetia's] peaceful citizens and Russian peacekeepers who had for many years defended the peace and security of the peoples living in a fragile Transcaucasus region”.

Tensions flare up 
Since last week tensions between both Georgia and its rebel region, as well as between Georgia and Russia have gone up. Accusations are going back and forth between Georgia and South Ossetia, particularly concerning small-scale mortar attacks and ‘provocations’. Meanwhile, Russia is expanding its troop presence in the rebel region despite agreements of completely pulling out its troops made in the cease-fire deal, and accused the U.S. of re-arming Georgia. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on national television that the decision to send troops in was "the hardest thing, but in the end we got it right." In the meantime South Ossetia's separatist leader, Eduard Kokoity, has used the occasion to press his case for independence.

Although President Saakashvili affirmed not to start a new war, the security in the region is extremely unstable. With currently only the EU monitoring mission in the zone of conflict, which is however not allowed to enter the rebel region, international monitoring is mainly absent. Both the OSCE and the UN mission were ended in June due to a Russian veto. In short, the risk of a renewed war is high.