European Forum

Turkey and Armenia sign agreement despite last-minute tensions

On Saturday 10 October, Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers signed protocols aimed at re-establishing diplomatic ties and re-opening their countries' border after decades of hostility. Initially thought to be a mere formality, the signing ceremony in Zurich developed into a diplomatic drama, when the Turkish and Armenian ministers were about to call the whole event off after re-igniting the same historic divergences that have long soured their relations. 

Armenia wants Turkey to recognise what it calls a genocide against its people during the first World War, while a sore point for Turkey remains what they call Armenia's occupation of parts of neighbouring Azerbaijan since the early 1990s. It was mainly thanks to US secretary of state Hillary Clinton's emergency diplomacy – phone calls and meeting with the ministers – that the protocols were eventually signed three hours later. 

The protocols still need to be ratified by the national parliaments in Ankara and Yerevan – a process which is likely to take some time due to strong opposition by certain parliamentary groups. 

The Swedish EU presidency welcomed the Saturday deal and "encourages Armenia and Turkey to remain committed to the process of normalisation and calls for the ratification and implementation the protocols as soon as possible," a statement reads. The move may also have a positive impact on EU-Turkey accession negotiations, where normalisation of relations with neighbours plays an important role. "Turkey and Armenia have taken bold decisions on an historic step. We trust that they will show the same courage to pursue the commitments they have taken today. This will set a good example for the whole region," EU enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn said. 

Russia has a strategic interest in Armenia, where it still keeps a military base. The small, landlocked country between Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkey and Georgia counted on Moscow's support during its war with Azerbaijan in 1993. This resulted in a still unresolved 'frozen conflict' over the Azeri region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azerbaijani foreign ministry said on Sunday that Turkey should not have normalised ties without a deal over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu tried to alleviate Azeri fears, pointing out that the borders with Armenia could only be opened once it has withdrawn from Azerbaijan. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that he wanted to “reiterate once again that Turkey cannot adopt a positive attitude unless Armenia withdraws from occupied Azerbaijani territories.” Azerbaijan is one of Turkey’s most important suppliers of gas and threatens to double its price when Turkey fails to support the country. Furthermore, Azerbaijan has already found another possible candidate for its gas: the Russians.

In a declaration, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) expressed serious concerns regarding the protocols signed on 10 October. According to the ARF, the President of the Republic of Armenia should have affirmed earlier that any kind of relations with Turkey cannot put into question the veracity of the Armenian Genocide and that the signed documents cannot in any way be related to the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. This could have resulted in the refusal to sign the protocols. Moreover, the presence of the foreign ministers of the United States, the Russian Federation, France, the European Union and Switzerland and the efforts to ensure the signing of the protocols at any cost, put pressure on Armenia. As said by ARF, Armenia should not have succumbed to those pressures. The ARF declared it is steadfast in its struggle to ensure the failure of the ratification of the protocols.

Source: EUobserver, Radio Liberty Armenia, NRC next, ARF declaration (see attachment)