European Forum

EU publishes progress reports

On 14 October the European Commission published its latest enlargement strategy, which appears to step back from previous policies by looking at each applicant according to its own merits. EU´s current enlargement process is taking place against the backdrop of a deep and widespread recession, with the crisis affecting both the EU and the enlargement countries themselves, according to the EU executive's 'Strategy Paper'.

The paper adds that economic activity in the Western Balkans and Turkey has contracted sharply since the second half of 2008, following reduced demand for their exports, less foreign direct investment and lower cross-border lending. Unemployment, which is already high in many countries, continues to rise further, it said.

The economic downturn, however, in the Western Balkans and Turkey was less severe than in the EU member countries that were most affected, the report adds, noting on the negative side that the Western Balkan countries have limited scope for a strong domestic macroeconomic policy response to the crisis.

Economic condition helped by EU prospects
The perspective of EU accession has helped investors to retain confidence in the economies of the Western Balkan region and provided an anchor for economic policies in the recent turbulent period, says the report. "Enlargement is one of the most effective foreign policy instruments of the EU," the Commission writes, adding that some of the countries concerned, such as Croatia and Turkey, have been able to reap the benefits of structural reforms introduced in recent years, helping to alleviate the crisis.

Crime and corruption harms public perception of enlargement
While conceding once again that the fight against corruption and organised crime remains a major challenge for the Western Balkans and Turkey, the Commission this time notes that these issues affect the public's perception of EU enlargement, sometimes in a disproportionate way.

Regional issues deter process
The EU executive notes that in the last 12 months, the border issue between Slovenia and Croatia has held back accession negotiations with Croatia. Similarly, it deplores the lack of progress made towards normalising Turkey's bilateral relations with the Republic of Cyprus. The Commission's 'strategy' document also deplores Serbia's obstruction of Kosovo's participation in regional meetings, initiatives and agreements, saying its attitude has become "an obstacle to regional cooperation". The paper also conveys the message that the recently-established Regional Cooperation Council in Sarajevo has not been delivering the expected results.

Visa-free regime by beginning of 2010
The Commission expects a visa-free travel regime to be established between the EU and Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia by the beginning of 2010. The EU executive says it will table proposals for Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina by mid-2010, provided that these countries meet the EU's set conditions. Kosovo is also included in the process, "aiming at eventual visa liberalisation when the necessary reforms [...] have been undertaken and the conditions met".

Progress by country

Croatia almost at the finish line
For Croatia, the buzzword is that the country's accession negotiations are "nearing the final phase". However, considerable challenges remain regarding access by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) to important documents on the use of artillery by Croatian forces during the Balkan war in the 1990s. The so-called 'artillery files' refer to Operation Storm, a Croatian military offensive to regain territory which caused around 200,000 Serbs to flee the former Yugoslav republic at the end of the 1991-1995 war. Border delimitations also continue to be a problem despite a recent move by Slovenia to unblock Croatia's EU negotiations. That agreement is without prejudice to the still-unresolved border dispute.

Turkey still not close enough
The pace of reforms now needs to be significantly stepped up in Turkey, the Commission 'Strategy Paper' says. Concerns remain in a number of areas, including freedom of expression, freedom of the press, freedom of religion, trade union rights, civilian oversight of the military and women's rights and gender equality, the paper reveals. Presenting the country reports, Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said that Turkish intellectuals continue to be hassled over their words. He also deplored that an anti-terror law is used to effectively restrict freedom of expression. In addition, he expressed concern over "legal uncertainties and pressures of all sorts [that] affect freedom of the press in practice, as shown by the tax fine against the Dogan media group". "We have serious concerns about tax fines for Dogan. I have asked the Turkish authorities to treat this matter very seriously," Rehn told the press.

On the positive side, Rehn noted the constructive role played by Turkey on regional security, for example in the Middle East and Southern Caucasus, on security of energy supply and on the promotion of dialogue between civilisations. He welcomed the normalisation of relations with Armenia, which he called "an historic step". Likewise, he welcomed a "democratic opening" to resolve the Kurdish question by wide consultation and concrete measures.

Macedonia will start accession talks soon
The good news was for Macedonia, with which the Commission now recommends opening accession negotiations. The country obtained candidate-country status in 2005, but has not yet started accession talks. However, as Rehn said, Macedonia must strive to develop friendly relations with its neighbours and finally settle its name dispute with Greece.

Bosnia and Herzegovina made limited progress 
Bosnia and Herzegovina's progress in addressing key reforms has remained "very limited", the report said, adding that in this country the domestic climate has "deteriorated". The country, which is close to disintegration according to some press reports, is urged to achieve constitutional reform "without further delay". The Commission is also categorical in saying that the EU will not be able to consider an application by Bosnia and Herzegovina until the Office of the High Representative, which has co-managed the country since the 1995 Dayton Agreements, is closed.

Serbia tries to catch up well
Serbia, which is a latecomer to the EU accession process, appears to be catching up, with the country winning praise for its "ambitious programme" to join the Union and for possessing the administrative capacity to make "substantial progress towards the EU". Cooperation with the ICTY has further improved, but war criminals Ratko Mladić and Goran Hadžić - who have both been indicted - remain at large, the paper notes. The Netherlands in particular is opposed to the entry into force of the EU-Serbia Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) before the two war criminals are brought to justice. Serbia is also asked to demonstrate a more cooperative attitude toward Kosovo's participation in formats of regional cooperation.

Kosovo should protect minorities 
The authorities of the former Serbian province of Kosovo, which declared independence in February 2008, are criticised for recent incidents which resulted in the damage of more than 20 vehicles belonging to the EU's law enforcement mission, EULEX. "Major challenges remain, including the rule of law, the fight against corruption and organised crime, the strengthening of administrative capacity, the protection of the Serb and other minorities, and enhancing dialogue and reconciliation between the communities," the strategy paper reads.

Albania awaits end election procedure
Albania applied for EU membership in April 2009. In July, the EU Council stated that it would return to the country's application once the Albanian election procedure had been completed. Ever since the June national elections, the two main players, the governing Democratic Party of Prime Minister Sali Berisha and the Socialist party and main challenger Edi Rama keep accusing each other of fraud. Albania needs to make progress, in particular regarding the rule of law and the fight against corruption, as well as the proper functioning of state institutions, especially the independence of the judiciary, the Commission paper says.

Montenegro needs to show evidence
The strategy document does not devote much space to Montenegro, the last republic to have seceded from Serbia in 2006, nor to the latest country to have applied for EU membership – Iceland. Montenegro filed its EU membership bid in December 2008. In April 2009 the Council invited the Commission to submit its opinion. Work on the preparation of the opinion is ongoing, the paper says, adding that Montenegro will need to demonstrate concrete results on consolidating the rule of law, and particularly on judicial reform and the fight against corruption.

The European Commission's voluminous yearly reports look at the state of play of each country's relations with Brussels. Croatia, Turkey and Macedonia are labelled as "candidate countries", whereas Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Iceland are considered "potential candidates", according to EU jargon. In fact, Macedonia and Kosovo do not even appear under those names: Macedonia is referred to as "the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" due to a dispute over the country's name, which is identical to a Greek province. The former Serbian province of Kosovo is referred to in the report as "Kosovo under the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244/99" because the country's unilateral independence has not been recognised by Spain, Slovakia, Romania and Cyprus. Of all the EU candidates, Croatia is the only country to have received political assurances that it will eventually join the Union, even if the Lisbon Treaty is not ratified. The current Nice Treaty provides for a Union of only 27 members, but EU politicians generally agree that minor amendments should allow Croatia to join.


Sources: European Commission portal; Euractiv; EUObserver