European Forum

Bosnia’s EU-US mediated talks end without results

The second round of  crucial high-level talks, aimed at ending Bosnia & Herzegovina's complicated political impasse, ended last week (21 October) without any results. No agreement was made on giving the central government a stronger role over the semi-independent Serbian and Muslim-Croat entities. Negotiations will continue at a technical level, but most informed commentators and diplomats see little chance of a breakthrough.

Unusual optimism from mediators
International officials, however, appeared strangely optimistic.“Although some limited progress has been made, further discussions will be required,”  a joint statement, issued after the meeting by US Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg and Swedish Foreign Minster and EU Presidency holder Carl Bildt said. Bildt used to be the first international high representative in Bosnia after the 1992-1995 war. The two senior diplomats initiated negotiations with representatives of seven of Bosnia's main political parties on 9 October. After presenting local leaders with a package of demands and incentives in that meeting, which they hoped would end Bosnia’s political deadlock. Hereafter, Bildt and Steinberg left technical experts to continue direct negotiations with local leaders. They returned to Bosnia on 19 October, and the talks resumed the next day.

The package
The package consisted of a set of requirements for continued constitutional reform and the fulfilment of remaining conditions for the closure of the Office of the High Representative. In return, the EU and US offered inclusion in the former's visa-free regime, to fast-track Bosnia's NATO membership and even offered the status of an EU candidate country.

Pack of reforms hopeless from the start
The package, nevertheless, seemed doomed to failure even before the restarted negotiations seriously began. Already after a couple of hours after last week's talks, six of seven local leaders rejected the proposal. For Bosnian Serbs, the package appeared to be too demanding, Bosnian Croats said it further weakened their position, while some Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) ruling and opposition parties said the proposed changes were merely cosmetic and failed to meet minimum requirements. Only the president of the ruling Bosniak Party of Democratic Action, SDA, Sulejman Tihic, tentatively accepted the package. He said his acceptance was motivated by fear that a failure could lead to new tensions, a crisis and even conflict.

During and after the talks Milorad Dodik, the president of the strongest Bosnian Serb party, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) and premier of the Serb-dominated Bosnian entity of Republika Srpska, was the most outspoken in criticising the initiative and package. According to Dodik it was a violation of the Dayton peace accord and, as such, unacceptable even as a basis for further talks. Dodik told reporters that the Butmir talks –the place where the negotiations were held- were “an unnecessary adventure” and that, for him, the “Butmir process does not exist”.

Three former high representatives to Bosnia were, furthermore, amongst those to have expressed dissatisfaction with both the content of the package and the method of its formulation. Most opponents agreed that the contents of the package would not satisfy any side. There were also complaints that the process through which the package was put together showed a complete disregard for key local and international institutions, including Bosnia's legislatures, civil society and the Office of the High Representative, OHR.

EU, US want more commitment
The written statement issued by Bildt and Steinberg after the negotiations appeared to downplay the talks' failure, while stressing that “some of the parties will need to demonstrate greater determination and flexibility if they are truly committed to achieve their stated goal” - EU integration. “We call on [Bosnian] leaders to meet their responsibilities by committing themselves to the compromises needed to make this possible,” the statement said, adding: “The process we have begun at Butmir will continue.”

Dodik initiates his own talks
After the failure of the talks local leaders continued to launch verbal assaults against each other on whether and how these crucial talks should continue.

Over the weekend, Dodik invited representatives of all main Parliamentary parties to come to Banja Luka in Bosnia to meet and discuss how to overcome political deadlocks, without the involvement of international officials.

Predominately Bosniak parties, such as the SDA, and Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina, refused the invitation and stressed they would not meet Dodik without the presence of western diplomats. The main opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) also rejected the invitation, saying that the ruling parties alone should resolve the mess they have created. “I believe that even you understand that it is a high time for you, as the leader of the current leadership, to change your years-long policy, or you yourself will be changed,” SDP leader Zlatko Lagumdzija said in an open letter to Dodik sent today (26 October). Only the Croat Democratic Union said that it would participate at this or any other constructive meeting.


Sources: Balkan Insight; B92; EUObserver