European Forum

Tensions rising in Ukraine over threats of election riots

Amid a decisive Presidential run-off vote this Sunday (7 February) Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has called for a second “Orange Revolution” if her opponent, the pro-Russian opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych, rigs the poll that is almost certain to have a lasting impact on the country.

The fiery Orange Revolution heroine made her call after outgoing President Viktor Yushchenko yesterday (4 February) signed a new law scrapping the requirement for a quorum of observers from both sides to approve counts at each polling station in Sunday’s vote. The legislation was initiated and pushed through Parliament on 3 February by the Party of Regions (PoR) of Yanukovych.

Tymoshenko threats with mass protests
At a news conference yesterday an angry Tymoshenko lashed out at the measure, calling it a "death warrant" for Ukraine's democracy, and accused Yanukovych of preparing to carry out widespread electoral fraud as his only way of winning the election. She said the Parliament had bypassed committee hearings and used other "unprecedented" violations of legislative procedure: "This law, which was essentially passed using extraordinary measures two days before the vote, changes all the rules governing elections," Tymoshenko said. "It opens a direct path toward the complete falsification of the election." The PM said the law would enable officials in regions controlled by Yanukovych's party to dismiss any observers on election day and replace them with their own appointees.

She called on the Ukrainian people to observe the election themselves and take to the streets if the ballot is seen as illegitimate. "I appeal to you to unite, to consolidate our forces, to stop those murky times of 2004 from returning to Ukraine, and to stop criminal authorities from seizing power in the election," she said.

One of the most remarkable things is that it is Yushchenko, Tymoshenko's onetime ally in the Orange Revolution, who has sparked the confrontation by putting his signature under the election changes, three days before the runoff. Iryna Vannykova, a Presidential spokeswoman, defended Yushchenko move. "The Presidential election faced the threat of disruption, therefore Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko signed the amendment [to the law on presidential elections adopted by parliament]," Vannykova said.

“Not strong enough”
Yanukovych dismissed Timoschenko's accusations, saying under the previous law, her supporters could have manipulated the vote themselves by deliberately blocking quorum at vote-counting centres. "This is a sign of weakness and a sign she has understood she's losing," news agencies quoted him as saying during a campaign stop in his stronghold of Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine.

“Unnecessary amendment”
Tymoshenko appealed to the international community and the OSCE, whose monitors will observe the election, to condemn the new law. International observers praised the first round of the Presidential election last month as a major success for democracy. Klas Bergman, director of communications for the OSCE's Parliamentary Assembly, said the mission had stressed the importance of not changing the country's electoral rules between the two rounds. "[...] The Parliamentary decision was unfortunate because it does put a cloud over the election which we think really was quite unnecessary", said Bergman. “[…] In reality, it will not change much if the election officials show up on the day and do their work professionally and in good faith, as they largely did in the first roun”, Jens Eschenbacher, the spokesman for the ODIHR monitoring mission, told reporters.

"PoR prepares riots"
"Meanwhile, Ukraine's recently dismissed Interior Minister, Yuriy Lutsenko, said in an interview published today (5 February) that the Party of Regions has brought 2,000 former defence and security officers by buses to the Kyiv region, to be ready to protest the outcome. "[…] Some 2,000 defence officials have deployed a campsite in the Kyiv region, […] and they are getting paid up to a day.," he said. The Yanukovych campaign has already erected a large stage on one of Kyiv's central squares.

Analysts say the mounting war of words could escalate into a standoff between state agencies and officials loyal to one or another of the candidates. Tymoshenko has already said the court that would arbitrate any election dispute is headed by a Yanukovych appointee who illegally kept his job after his term ran out.

Most believe, however, Ukrainians are too disillusioned with both candidates to repeat the massive protests of the Orange Revolution. But in Kyiv, there are fears the election could result in a similar political standoff that would discredit the institution of democracy in Ukraine.

EU raises concerns
EU diplomats at internal meetings in Brussels and Kiev raised concerns yesterday about the potential collapse of Ukraine's Presidential election process. "We want to work with a legitimately elected government ...towards the political stability of Ukraine", Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos told MEPs. Any deepening of political instability in Ukraine threatens to undermine EU attempts to negotiate a new Association Agreement with the country.

Tymoshenko trailed Yanukovych by 10 per cent in the election's first round. But she hopes to unite a fractured Orange electorate that voted for several candidates last month. The candidates have fought a bitter campaign in which each have hurled insults at the other in a tight race that's too close to call. On Monday (1 February) Yanukovych refused to participate in the only live televised debate with Timoshenko, calling her election pledges "dirt and evil". Appearing on her own on national television Timoshenko adressed the television audience and called on them not to vote for Yanukovych unless they wanted to "re-open the flood gates of corruption".

Whoever wins the election will have to confront a devastating economic crisis and widely predicted ongoing political instability, including possible early Parliamentary elections and constitutional reform to strengthen a weak Presidency. Both sides appear to be preparing for a confrontation over the election results.


Sources: Kyiv Post; RFE/RL; EU Observer