European Forum

Yanukovych wins Ukrainian poll; Timoshenko to challenge result in court

Ukrainian opposition Party of Regions leader, Victor Yanukovych, won the Presidential run-off held on 7 February by a marge of merely 3.48%, as was officialy announced by the Ukrainian Central Election Commission (CEC) on 10 February. He already claimed victory two days earlier and now told his bitter rival Yulia Tymoshenko to resign as Prime Minister and go into opposition. But Tymoshenko refused to concede accusing Yanukovych of vote-rigging. With 100% of the votes counted, Yanukovych won 48.95% of the votes, while Tymoshenko gained 45.47%. 4.36% voted against both candidates. The voter turn-out was set at 69.07%. The CEC stated that official results will be released before 17 February.

Although international election observers, led by the OSCE, noted that the electoral process met most OSCE and Council of Europe standards, they also concluded that the lack of mutual trust between the candidates and the deficient legal framework were at the root of the problems observed and constitute an immediate challenge for the new leadership. Election monitors urged a peaceful transition to power.

Timoshenko to challenge results
Monday evening (8 February) Tymoshenko said she did not recognise the results and would contest them in court, though she backed away from a threat to call people out on to the streets in a repeat of the 2004 'Orange' protests. Tymoshenko's campaign chief said they would contest results in some 1,000 polling stations in the pro-Yanukovych industrial east. Local newspapers reported that she has already instructured her lawyers to prepare a legal case. Some of her loyalists, however, have privately expessed their concerns saying they have doubt that the Timoshenko camp could prove fraud against Yanukovych.

The PM was scheduled to hold a news conference early on Monday, but the announcement of a re-scheduled conference was later on removed from her website. Since then, she has not be seen in public.

Yanukovych pressed Tymoshenko to acknowledge the fight was over and not mount a challenge. He also urged her to leave her post in order to prevent "a new crisis".

Legal challenges and street protests would prolong damaging political instability in the country of 46 million people. It could further delay Ukraine's chances of repaying more than 100 billion dollars of foreign debt and nursing its sickly economy back to health after a 15 % collapse last year.

EU urges Tymoshenko to concede defeat
While the European Union recognised the elections as fair, Timoshenko has ingnored calls by the international community to shake hands with the winner of the poll. EU Foreign Relations Chief, Catherine Ashton, has nevertheless congratulated Ukraine on holding free and fair elections. Also, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has congratulated Yanukovych with this victory.

Yanukovych’s comeback
The results showed a comeback for the rough-hewn Yanukovych (59), tagged as Moscow's stooge five years ago when street protests led by Tymoshenko overturned results that initially gave him victory in an election tainted by fraud. A victory for Yanukovych could see the country shift back towards former Soviet master Russia after five years of infighting and a sliding economy turned the euphoria of the 2004 Orange Revolution into disillusionment. Tymoshenko was the co-architect of the 2004 revolution with pro-Western outgoing President Viktor Yushchenko, but their relationship quickly soured.

Both Yanukovych and Timoshenko pledged integration with Europe while improving ties with Moscow, but Tymoshenko is seen as more pro-Western. Yanukovych is unlikely to pursue membership of NATO.

An aide of Yanukovych, Borys Kolesnikov, answering reporters' question on Monday, said there were no back-stage contacts with Tymoshenko's camp to do a deal on a future alliance. "It is impossible. There can be no coalition with BYuT (the Tymoshenko bloc in Parliament)," said Kolesnikov. Assuming Yanukovych's victory is officialy confirmed, Tymoshenko can expect in any case to be ousted as PM by a vote of no confidence in Parliament. Yanukovych will in the meantime be looking to create a coaltion to get his own ally into the role of Prime Minister. This might require support from the Our Ukraine faction of outgoing President Yushchenko. This is, however, not a certainty yet. Yanukovych will, nonetheless, require only some of Our Ukraine MPs to create a workable majority. If he will not succeed, new Parliamentary elections will be held, most probably in June or in autumn. But Yanukovych is sceptic towards new elections as he is afraid of 'voter fatigue'.

Population dismisses former leaders
Voters were unenthusiastic about either candidate in the election, but seemed to feel Yanukovych, a former Prime Minister who stressed the fight against poverty, had the best chance of restoring order. "We lost five years of our lives thanks to Yushchenko and Tymoshenko," said Oleg Nochvyn, a miner in his 50s in the eastern region of Donetsk "[…] Under Yanukovych we had everything -- economic growth, everything was getting better."

Regardless of the outcome, squabbling was set to continue, reflecting the country's broader divisions. Ukraine is divided almost equally between a Russian-leaning east and south and a Western-friendly centre and west.

Updated: 10 February, 11:05

Sources: Kyiv Post; Unian; Reuters; OSCE; Euractiv