European Forum

Full report on the fringe meeting in Sarajevo: “EU enlargement state of play”

On Tuesday 30 March the Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS) and the European Forum for Democracy and Solidarity organised a fringe meeting: “EU enlargement state of play” in Sarajevo in the framework of the PES Balkan Conference. The meeting was an interesting start to the discussions at the PES Balkan Conference. Approximately 40 participants — representatives of social democratic political parties and foundations from southeast Europe and the EU, non governmental organisations, EU institutions, international organisations and experts on the issue — actively participated in the discussion and had the opportunity to listen to interesting speakers.

Political context
The worsening socio-economic situation/conditions (unemployment rate of 43%) and political situation, characterized by nationalist rhetoric and ethnic division, are worrying. Hoping for a better future, most citizens of BiH support EU accession, but due to the inefficiency and incapability of the state institutions the country is lagging behind in the EU integration process. Whilst all politicians in the country strongly support EU integration of the country, they are unfortunately rarely acting to it. Local leaders and representatives of the international community are constantly pointing fingers at each other while at the same time the living standards of ordinary citizens and the overall socio-economic situation are deteriorating. The general elections in BiH will take place on 3 October of 2010 and there is not much optimism that these elections will bring change to the country. This change naturally has to come from progressive forces in BiH society and politics. The purpose of the fringe meeting was to introduce and discuss the topic of the PES Balkan Conference, namely, progressive and social democratic strategies towards EU membership of the Western Balkans region.

Is Europe ready for future enlargements?
After Lena Hjelm-Wallén, President of the European Forum for Democracy and Solidarity, warmly welcomed 40 participants, the first panel discussed if Europe is ready for future enlargements. The first speaker, Prof. Dr. Vasile Puscas director at the Institute for International Studies of the “Babes-Bolyai” University, argued that the current international crisis will restructure the international system. The most important thing which states have to do now is to quickly adapt to the new deal of the international system. In this process of adaptation, European integration and deepening are the key words and a narcissist attitude of the States towards future enlargement could be harmful. Furthermore, Puscas stressed that the accession criteria for EU membership have become more strict as legal and administrative criteria have been added as well. Discussing future enlargements, Puscas presented two points of view, of the candidate countries and of the EU member states. Whilst the first mentioned have to harmonise their interests with those of the EU by preparing internally and complying with the accession criteria, the latter have to promote EU enlargements within their respective countries and to work on their absorption capacity. Especially the internal preparation of candidate countries, which consist of reforms that are beneficial to the country putting aside future membership, is of crucial importance. Puscas concluded his presentation by discussing the lessons learnt from Romania’s EU accession — importance of solid internal preparation for negotiations and the interdependence of the negotiation chapters — and by stating that the current wave of enlargement is focusing from the very beginning on the administrative capacity, the legal system and internal preparations.

The second speaker, Prof. Dr. André Gerrits, prof. of European Studies at the University of Amsterdam and chairman of the Alfred Mozer Stichting was less optimistic about EU readiness for future enlargement. First of all, there is never one answer on this question from Brussels. The formal answer is that the EU is ready, however, politically it is not due to the enlargement fatigue (caused mainly by the frustration about the latest enlargement round and the Euro crisis) and the Western Balkans itself. According to Gerrits, there is a lack of incentives among the local elites in the Western Balkans to push forward with the EU accession. The EU itself is still a strong pull factor for the citizens of the Western Balkans, although especially in BiH the Union is losing its legitimacy. Finally, Gerrits argued that we should have a more sectoral approach, focusing for example on the economy, visa-liberalisation and administrative and judicial legal reforms, and not EU accession per se.

Zoran Thaler, member of the European Parliament for the S&D Group has put the EU integration of the Western Balkans in a different perspective by arguing that we should keep in mind that the GDP of all Western Balkan countries together is 1 per cent of the GDP of the EU. In addition, it is good to question how long it would take China, India, the US or Brazil to integrate 1 per cent of the neighbouring region. Although the Western Balkans is a small region economically, it is big in its complexity. Thaler was very optimistic about the EU prospects of the Western Balkans: “if a country is ready to join, it will join”, adding that the nature of the EU is to grow. Furthermore, Thaler emphasised the importance of local initiatives, cross-border cooperation and regional integration in speeding up the EU integration of the region and argued that the magnetic soft power of the EU should not be underestimated. Finally, he shortly discussed the situation in Western Balkans countries concerning the EU integration process, emphasising the problematic situation in BiH and Kosovo.

The last speaker of the first panel, Tamás Szemlér Ph.D connected to the Institute for World Economics in Budapest, divided readiness to join the Union in three different levels: criteria, technical readiness and political readiness. When it comes to criteria, Szemlér stressed that an evolution of the integration process is taking place as the criteria have been enhanced and have become more strict. For example, Spain only had to open its market to other EU member states in order to become member of the EU. Concerning technical readiness Szemlér was referring to the institutional and financial capacity of the EU to welcome new members. Finally, political readiness is closely linked to the strategy for accession. It is of crucial importance to create a comprehensive strategy for the EU accession of the region based on interdependency within the region and knowledge of the region. In this strategy concrete goals should be set which will be achieved in year 2014. In addition, it is important to mention that the costs of non-enlargement in terms of stability, geo-strategy and legitimacy of the EU would be much higher.

After the presentations there was room for questions, remarks and discussion. Ulrike Hartmann from the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) of Austria said that she is very much in favour of setting target dates, which should be realistic and not focusing on accession per se. In addition, she added that progressive forces in the EU should promote EU enlargement and explain to the EU citizens why the Western Balkans should be part of the EU. For example, at the moment Austrian citizens are rather pessimistic about future enlargements assuming that their social and economic security will be endangered. Felix Porkert from the German SPD said that his party is committed to EU enlargement of the Western Balkans and Turkey. However, the current German government led by the Christian Democrats is sceptical and does not have accession of the Western Balkans high on the political agenda. Moreover, the government argues it is a time of reflection and not a time of further enlargement. Gerrits argued that the most important absorption capacity of the EU, the political one, is in decrease due to the increase in intergovernmentalism which will lead to a more informal decision-making strongly determined by the big powers, France and Germany. Thaler said that the visa liberalisation for FYR Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro, showed that EU member states have no problems with the Western Balkans making concrete steps towards full EU membership. In addition, on the question of the role of Russia in the region, Thaler answered that the country plays an important role economically— especially in the field of energy — but a small role politically. In fact, Russia supports EU integration of Serbia hoping to have more influence on EU decision-making through Serbia. Puscas stressed that while the social democratic parties in the EU are \ most pro-enlargement, the doctrine of enlargement is within the conservative forces. The discussion ended with remarks from Zoran Popov of the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia and Kurt Bassuener of the Democratization Policy Council. Popov said that despite the fact that the EU has invested a lot in the region when it comes to security and economy, enlargement fatigue is around the corner. The EU and the Western Balkans should not allow this fatigue to prevail above the common goal of both the EU and the Western Balkans: EU integration of the region. Bassuener finally argued that Russia is an opportunistic player in the region and this strategy works as the EU is often divided.

Towards a coherent EU policy for the Western Balkans
The second panel, chaired by François Isserel-Savary, senior policy advisor at the Foundation for European Progressive Studies kicked-off with a presentation by Dr. Zlatko Lagumdžija, leader of the Social Democratic Party of BiH. Lagumdžija wondered if there is any EU policy towards the Western Balkans, let alone a coherent one. He added that there is a big difference between the European left and the rest of the political movements in the EU. There are two crucial questions for both the EU and the countries in the region when it comes to EU enlargement towards the Western Balkans: do we really want to have the region in the EU and do we work hard enough to achieve this? The perception of many BiH citizens is that there is no honest wish within the EU member states to welcome the Western Balkans into the Union on the short term. BiH is the last country that is to sign the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA). Being confronted with the difficult political situation in BiH the EU unfortunately showed its flexibility on the criteria for signing the SAA, which led to attitude within the right-wing populist parties in BiH that the EU will adapt to them and to the loss of all incentives to conduct the necessary reforms.

The second speaker of the panel, Andris Ķesteris, European Commission DG Enlargement principal Advisor Civil Society and Inter-institutional Relations said that we should not forget that the EU is not only about the money, funding and the economy in general. It is also about solidarity, trust and stability. Therefore there is a moral political responsibility to unifyEurope and to promote political culture of solidarity. In addition, Ķesteris argued that we should not forget to mention Turkey which is strategically and security-wise an important actor in the wider region.

Kristian Vigenin, vice-president of the S&D Group in the European Parliament was quite surprised about some pessimistic and negative views on the EU accession of Western Balkans countries as it is already settled that the region will join the EU. Of course the EU policy is sometimes contradicting when it comes to specific countries, however, the EU policy towards the Western Balkans is very clear: it is a part of Europe and it will join the EU. In addition, in the latest European Commission Progress Report positive developments have been noted in all countries from the region. Vigenin finished his presentation by saying that we should be aware of raising too high expectations among the countries, adding that there will not be another enlargement big bang.

The fourth speaker, Ilir Meta minister of the foreign affairs of Albania, argued that although it is not the best time to talk about EU enlargement, it is very important to make clear to the citizens in EU countries and the Western Balkans that the EU integration and enlargement is a project of peace and stability. Furthermore, Meta said that many difficulties and challenges in the EU integration process (division within the EU, Kosovo and other pending issues) urge us to be more pragmatic and to work in a constructive European way towards a common goal.

The final speaker of the second panel, Ranko Krivokapić speaker of the parliament of Montenegro, said that for the first time in history all countries in the Western Balkans have the same ideological and economic concept. However, major challenges — regional cooperation, to establish multi-ethnic societies and strong economies — remain. Besides tackling these challenges, the political elite has to transform and the progressive forces in the region have to remain optimistic and to show that they are reliable partners to the EU. Krivokapić concluded by saying that it is often said that the Balkans are producing too much history. It can be argued, however, that others produce the history and the Balkan countries unfortunately consume it.

As usually the speeches were followed by questions, remarks and discussion. Arta Dade from the Socialist party of Albania (SPA), said that the region is lagging behind due to the enlargement fatigue among some EU member states and the lack of responsibility among the political elite in the region. Furthermore, Dade shed a light on the European integration process from the point of view of social democratic values. She strongly criticized the decision of the Socialist Movement for Integration that entered a coalition with the Democratic Party of Albania: “It is important to question ourselves as social democrats why we consider ourselves to be more progressive than others and how our ideology goes together with joining the most corrupt government”. Zoran Popov of the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia, shortly discussed the EU integration process of his country who was first in the region to sign the SAA. His party, which is the biggest opposition party, fully and unconditionally supports the government when it comes to EU integration. However, for the current conservative government EU integration is a priority only on paper as many necessary reforms have been slowed down. Finally, Popov emphasised the importance of regional integration and cooperation. Milan Živković from Novo Društvo and SDP Croatia, argued that the EU as an economic power has to and will enlarge in order to sustain itself. However, when it comes to social rights the EU is rather a fort that is very difficult to access. Therefore we should question ourselves if, for example, EU citizens will be willing to share their social rights with citizens of Croatia and Croatian citizens in the future with BiH citizens? Vigenin added that indeed enlargement is not only a expansion of the market but also an expansion of values. Furthermore, EU membership is a first step and should not be the final goal. The discussion was closed with remarks from Kurt Bassuener. He said that sometimes it is presented if the only reason for governments in the Western Balkan countries to exist is to bring its respective country into the EU. He added that in some countries, especially BiH, there is not much progress in the EU integration process as the enlargement models assume that everybody wants to join the EU. This is not the case in BiH where the political system rewards political division.

Conclusions and recommendations
Despite many challenges countries in the Western Balkans are facing on their road towards EU membership — enlargement fatigue, internal political struggles, economic crisis and unwillingness and lack of incentives among the local political elites in some countries to speed up the EU integration process — it is clear that the countries from the region will individually join the EU when they are ready. Some countries are processing well, while others like BiH, Kosovo and Albania face great challenges. On the road towards EU membership it is important to set clear and achievable goals, such as visa liberalisation, and to inform the citizens in the EU and the Western Balkans about the importance of enlargement in terms of peace, stability, solidarity and economy. As argued by one of the speakers the costs of non-enlargement are potentially much higher for both the region and the EU. Progressive forces in the EU should keep EU enlargement high on the political agenda, whilst these forces in the region should transform and be a reliable partner for the EU.

The meeting proved to be a very interesting introduction to the PES Balkan Conference which started immediately after the meeting. It was presented in the final and unanimously adopted political declaration of the conference, “that the PES feels that a common agenda for the Western Balkans towards EU membership is needed.” This vision is “Enlargement 2014”. It is to be understood as a milestone towards EU membership for the countries of the region. The roadmap for this vision is the Thessaloniki European Council declaration of 2003, which stipulates values of the EU and the continuation of Enlargement in the framework of the Stability and Association process. The vision of “Enlargement 2014” bears in mind that some countries may join the EU before the year 2014. A full report on the PES Balkan Conference “Progressive Societies in the Balkans” is available here.