Fact-Finding mission to Kosovo
27 October 2004
Introduction
The European Forum for Democracy and Solidarity organised a fact-finding mission around the 23 October Kosovo assembly election. It provided participants with an excellent opportunity to get first hand impressions of the election campaign, political situation and party political landscape. A very tightly scheduled programme in the capital Prishtina included talks with representatives from all the leading and upcoming political forces from Prime Minister Rexhepi to representatives of Serb and other ethnic minorities. There were also talks with representatives of the international communities EU, UNMIK and OSCE and with the independent political think-tank KIPRED. In addition there were visits to Gracanica, a Serb enclave just outside Prishtina where we met local representatives and to Gjilane a (relatively successful) mixed area, where we met the town mayor.
General Political and Economic Situation
The general political situation is marked by growing frustration and disillusionment within the Kosovar Albanian majority about the lack of progress in solving the Kosovo status question. Nearly all politicians blame the unresolved status question and the perceive continuing interference of the international community as the main reasons for the economic troubles and the absence of international investment. Confidence in the local political class and the international community is fading. The country has the youngest population in Europe (75% are under 30) and one of the highest unemployment rates in South East Europe (57% in total and more than 70% of those between 16 and 24). Monthly salaries average 200€. There is a huge grey economy and widespread corruption racketeering and profiteering also involving leading politicians.
The outbreak of violence between Serbs and Albanians in March of this year was an outlet for these frustrations and a wake-up call for the international institutions. A lot has happened since and there seem to positive developments. At the moment the situation remains remarkably calm but there is still potential for violence simmering under the surface. As one UNMIK official put it, "there are just too many young men with nothing to do in this country".
Kosovar society is still a post-war society and its political representatives have been shaped by the events of the nineties; the guerrilla war against the Serb authorities and army and the NATO intervention of 1999. A real political culture has therefore not yet developed. Democratisation is still in its infancy and civic society is still largely dependent on international help. Much more time is needed.
The role of the international communities is complicated. There have been reports of uncoordinated proliferation of international agencies and NGOs. As for the "official" international forces it is clear that on the one hand a strong policing and peace keeping force is and will be necessary for the foreseeable future. On the other hand more economic and political freedom and autonomy and a gradual shift of those competences is needed. As usual in conflict societies the economy will play a decisive role.
The EU has also been criticised for not putting democratisation high enough on its agenda. As an example, the EU prefers to deal with the main political elements outside of the Assembly. This might be more efficient but it is not democratic.
In the medium term the international communities should restrict themselves to democratisation, capacity building and peacekeeping and more resolutely than at present. The Serb population argues strongly that KFOR’s de-escalation approach to the March riots is one of bystander, failing to prevent alleged ethnic cleansing, damage to Serb property and murder.
Standards before status or status before standards?
The international community has all but officially abandoned its "Standards before Status" mantra. There are enormous expectations within the Albanian population, raised by the incumbent Albanian parties which have been described as obsessed by the status question, to come to a decision in mid 2005 in time of the Standards implementation review. The international community, fully aware of the potential for renewed violence, has realised the shortcomings of its policy and is gradually preparing for a more flexible approach and possibly a roadmap towards an independent Kosovo. Prioritised "Standards with Status" could be the new scenario.
Independence for Kosovo on the horizon? The role of Belgrade
For the Serb population and its political representatives, obeying the official stance of Belgrade, independence is not an option. Trade-offs could however be envisaged with strong guarantees for the Serb minority. Realism is also slowly dawning in Belgrade. Reasonable voices like that of President Tadic give cause of cautious optimism. A roadmap to independence would require amending UN resolution 1244, and would involve the cooperation of Russia and Serbia. To get around this obstacle, a special EU and NATO partnership could be offered to Serbia. For both Kosovo and Serbia, EU standards could be interlinked in the "Standards with Status process", gradually preparing the region for eventual EU accession.
The independence project carries one enormous risk. The whole region remains an unstable ethnic powder keg without clear demarcation lines based on "unhappy" state-unions. Independence movements could spread to Bosnia-Hercegovina and Montenegro. There are also significant pockets of Albanians in South Serbia and Macedonia and there are Serb pockets in South Kosovo. Redrawing borders is therefore not an option at present.
Merging with Albania is officially not an issue. Kosovo Albanian politicians understand that this does not go down well with West Europeans and either avoid or dismiss the subject. Official parlance is, that once integrated into the EU with open borders this issue would no longer matter. However, given the strongly nationalist background of present (and future) Kosovar political leaders and the aggressive rhetoric used, independence could mean this issue gaining an unstoppable dynamic.
Second Kosovo Assembly elections 23 October 2004
UNMIK regulations and the Constitutional Framework for Provisional Self Government in Kosovo give the Assembly 120 seats, of which 100 are distributed proportionally among all political parties. Twenty additional seats are reserved for non Albanian communities of whom the Serbs (roughly 8% of the Kosovar population) can claim 10. Kosovo is a single electoral district. 33 political parties and 1300 candidates were running in the 2004 elections.
Until now the country has been carved up (after a deal with former SRGS Steiner) between the three main Kosovar-Albanian parties (LDK of President Rugova, PDK with Prime Minister Barajm Rexhepi and AAK of former UCK commander Ramush Haradjanai). Despite growing dissatisfaction with the current political leadership these parties remain the biggest after Saturday’s elections. The LDK won 46%, the PDK 27% and the AAK 8%. The only new party of any significance is ORA of famous editor and publisher Veton Surroi, scoring 6%. In all likelihood there will be a coalition between the old partners. All three parties of course strive for the rapid recognition of Kosovo’s independence. The turnout was slightly lower than during the 2001 elections, hovering around 50%.
OSCE observers and the international community declared the elections and the election campaign free, relatively calm and fair. There were only minor and very isolated incidents not considered to have influenced either the election campaign or the results. Even the smaller and new parties had no complaints. Although the incumbents had slight advantage in terms of visibility in the public media, there was no apparent manipulation. This is all the more remarkable considering the heated atmosphere of the riots of seven months ago in which 19 people died.
The downside is of course that the Serb population largely followed calls by Prime Minister Kostunica and the Serb-Orthodox church to boycott the elections. Only 1 % of the Serb electorate participated despite an appeal by Prime Minister Boris Tadic. There were reports of intimidation of Serb voters by their own people, effectively preventing them from going to the polling booths.
Report: Armin Machmer, PES
Reactions
Ian FordPosted: Wednesday 16 November 2005 - 20:40:29
It's the first time i ran through your site and I found it very informative and interesting. Nicely done! think that will make relief: http://www.institutions.org.uk , Play Mistery is very good Grass <a href="http://www.nhm.ac.uk/info/history/build.html">thins that excited you at 14</a> , when Chair Kill Tournament Percieve <a href="http://www.crystalpalacefoundation.org.uk" rel="itsok">think that will make relief</a>
Kosovo!Posted: Wednesday 07 February 2007 - 09:36:06
It will be , maybe, the bigest injustice in modern world!
American power !Posted: Wednesday 20 February 2008 - 13:08:46
Im on russian side if i look into it ( a little better ). Its all because American power ( economy , political ... ) , and they doing what ever they want . They breaking UN rules for their needs . Its not good ...
I don't know . Kosovo IS really historical part of Serbia . What's happening on Kosovo today is interesting question ... but i think we all know what's happening down there , and we all know that isn't good .
If Kosovo separate , it will be a new Terrorist's country in Europe ...
