Electionblog
This weblog follows all the important elections in the region with personal stories of participants and observers.
Archive January 2007
Tue 23 Jan 2007 - January 21th 2007 elections in Serbia: how to interpret the outcome?
The election resultsIndeed, the results of the elections are puzzling. The ultra-nationalistic Radical Party of Serbia (SRS) stabilised its position as the biggest party in parliament. But a higher result was predicted by some observers. Even for the SRS to get a majority in parliament according to some polls. The former party of Slobodan Milosovic (SPS) lost seats but passed the threshold of 5%.
Within the democratic camp the more reform oriented parties won. The party of Democratic Party (DS) of former prime-minister Dindić won over the more nationalistic oriented Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) of present prime-minister Kostunica. Moreover, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) for the first time passed the threshold on their own. The liberals won with a contrasting and outspoken campaign, stating that Serbia should cooperate with the The Hague Tribunal and let Kosovo become independent. The liberal technocrats (G17 Plus) lost, but also stayed in parliament. Also some small ethnic parties got into parliament (they have no threshold). DS, DSS and G17 Plus are expected to form the new government.
Troubles on the horizon
The result was in line with a statement by Serbian Minster of Foreign Affairs Vuk Draskovic some time before the elections. He said his country was structurally divided in 60% of the people pro reform, democracy, and breaking with the past and 40% of the people (ultra)nationalistic and reform sceptic/tired. With an emotional urgency towards Europe he warned that these numbers could easily turn around if the Kosovo independence issue would not be taken care of with caution by the international community.
In the upcoming months there seem to be three big hobbles on the Serbian bumpy road of democratic transition:
· The UN handling of the future status of Kosovo could seriously frustrate the forming of a new government. If a new government is not formed within 3 months, the constitution demands that new elections should be hold. Draskovic’s warning of a power shift could be proven true in this case. A few days ago, prime-minister Kostunica warned already that his intention is to freeze all diplomatic relations with countries in favour of Kosovo independence.
· Another risk for stability is the ongoing fight between DS and DSS over who should get the new prime-minister. If Kostunica loses this position he will most likely disappear from the Serbian political arena. To prevent this from happening he could chose to form a government with the ultra-nationalists instead.
· A last risk is that a central tactic of Serbia’s governments last years – delaying and opposing international demands – is being rewarded. EU negotiations with Serbia over a stabilization and association pact were suspended last year because Serbia did not cooperate with the arrest and transfer of Mladic. At this moment a growing coalition of European countries is pressing to reopen negotiations, even though Serbia still does not meet international demands. This would be a wrong incentive for a new Serbian government.
Hope of a better future
Luckily, it was not only problems and trouble this last elections. The international elections observation team of the OSCE judged the elections were overall free and fair. All parties got enough and equal media attention and there were no signs of intimidation or fraud during the election period. Ethnic minority parties could also participate equally. Contrary to predictions the future status of Kosovo was a minor subject during the election campaigns. With people in Serbia being very cynical about politics in general it was good to notice the turnout was higher than expected at 60,4%.
Some people I spoke with also tried to put the big support of the radical nationalists into context. A woman from south Serbia told me about these people as the ‘lost generation filled with bitterness’. She explained their losses during the last decennium of war and international sanctions: their jobs, their heroes, their dignity, their future. She continued: “They are feeling hardship, while seeing on tv how a new elite is filling its pockets by corruption”.
A taxidriver on my way back to the airport seemed to show all signs of this generation the woman told me about. For this reason I was surprised to hear his answer on my question what he had voted. His answer: “LDP. Because the next generation deserves a better life”.
Anne Blanksma is a political scientist from the Netherlands, he visited Serbia during the elections
Posted by Anne Blanksma on 05-02-2007 - 12:34:03 Reactions: 0
Wed 17 Jan 2007 - Local elections Belarus 14 January
During four days in January we travelled three persons around Belarus to meet with local politicians from the democratic opposition to see how the local elections on the 14th was organised. Already from the beginning it has been clear that the political pressure on the democratic forces inside the country has been increased and a number of candidates was reported to have stepped aside only days before the election day.
The overall strategy from the governing regime that became clear to us was to use this election to get rid of the single democratic candidates that managed to get elected last local elections four years ago, and to replace them only with regime faithful candidates instead. From being an election consisting of around 22.000 seats the total number of candidates reached only 23.000. This means that for the absolute majority of seats in the election there was really only one candidate to chose from and to elect. Many places we visited, such as Vitebsk had no opposition candidate in the whole region who was able to stand all the way up to election day. This said, the regional differences are big, and much dependent on local authorities and police forces. As democratic opposition candidate you risk every day harassment from the regime forces, but also your family and relatives risk loosing their jobs or seats at the university. Most of the workforce in the country is hired on one-year contracts, that can easily be ended after the one year period with absolutely no motivation at all.
The election day was set to the 14th of January and coincided with the longest holiday of the year. Election agitation is only allowed one month ahead of the election, this time through the Christmas and new years celebrations, and only at designated places, often located outside of the city centre.
Although travelling through large parts of the country, and also being in Minsk on election day, we could hardly notice that there was in fact an election taking place. The central authorities we were told tried hart do down-play the political side of the election, and to picture it as not important, and that this was in reality not about politics but about having trustworthy people in charge that could provide for clean streets, low criminality and so on.
Anatoli from the social democratic party lead by the imprisoned Kazulin told us they had 207 candidates in the beginning, but after the complicated application process only 72 managed to become registered. And from those 72 only about 30 was to candidate all the way up to election day. To become a candidate you have to collect between 150 and 300 signatures to support you. These are then controlled by the authorities and you risk being denied candidature for one single miss spelling of a name or other such “irregularities”. If your application as a candidate is denied, you have no opportunity to get a new try at another or higher level. Elena from the Nadjea womens party told us the similar story of having 25 nominations, 9 candidates being registered, and finally only having 4 candidates in total left for election day.
One woman we spoke to, Galina, had gone to vote, only to discover that she according to the registration already had cast her vote there earlier. Even though the difficulties the democratic forces often tried to make the most of the situation, and to use this small opportunity of getting their views out to the public. As Yuri told us, we do not count on winning, but we will not loose the hope!
Posted by Daniel Molin, Swedish Social Democratic Party on 17-01-2007 - 10:31:18 Reactions: 0
