Fri 30 Nov 2007 - Putin's Plan? II

Putin's “Plan” will have success. The polls show that Putin's United Russia will win the elections and get 60-80 percent of the seats in the parliament, even though the party of power refrained to participate in election debates. This leaves the other participating parties - among which the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), the Communist Party of Russia (KPRF), the Democratic Party Yabloko and Spravedlivaya Rossiya (Free Russia, SR) are the most important – to participate in television debates and fight among themselves. United Russia still captures most of the television time and it dominates the streets with advertise campaigns. The LDPR is expected to finish second with about 10 percent of the votes, the same as the Communistic Party. The Democratic Party Yabloko will probably fail to pass the 7 percent barrier of electoral participation with an expectation of 1-3 percent of the votes. But a poll of the All-Russia’s Centre of Public Opinion Study predicted that United Russia would be the only party which gathers enough votes for the State Duma.

The citizens of St. Petersburg I have spoken to have said to be fed up with these massive waves of propaganda, or agitatsiya. Russian politics are widely discussed in the kitchens of Russian families. They often make a comparison between nowadays propaganda and the one from the Soviet Union. While most people seem to have had enough propaganda on their doorsteps - including additional counter agitation pamphlets against some political parties in their mailbox - the ratings of United Russia do not seem to falter too much and United Russia and Russia’s President dominate the television screen.

Putin remains a firm speaker. In a speech to 5000 supporters – mostly young members of pro-Kremlin movements Nashi and Molodye Gvardia - on the 22nd of November, Putin played the “international influence” card. There is nothing that causes more tumult in Russia today as the meddling of western sponsors to civil movements and political parties. Putin accused his opponents of deliberately obstructing his plans and victory. “…They’re going to take to the streets. They have learned from Western experts and have received some training in neighboring republics. And now they are going to stage provocations here.” A television documentary on the 25th of November about the “colored revolutions” in Georgia, Serbia and Ukraine, backs his story up: a western conspiracy is behind these revolutions, and now it should be Russia’s turn. But a Russian revolution is most unlikely.

Putin also puts Russians to the spot and makes them choose between the economic turmoil during the privatization in the 90’s and his own established plan that promises stability. Putin remains popular because of the stable economic growth he brought after the hyperinflation and enrichment of a small elite in the nineties. Putin claimed that “If these gentlemen come back to power, they will again cheat people…they want to restore an oligarchic regime”.

But who are these mysterious “gentlemen”? One of these unidentified “gentlemen” may be Democratic Party Yabloko leader Grigory Yavlinsky or SPS leader Nikita Belykh. Yabloko has led a complicated life in the last year. It was banned from the city elections in St. Petersburg, and now it campaigns with no substantial financial resources at all against the giant United Russia. Yavlinsky and his party made a new program called “Seven Steps to Equality”. Yabloko remains one of the only parties who builds a strong program and tries to explain it to Russia’s citizens. The SPS (Union of Right Forces) and its leader Nikita Belykh received growing critique from United Russia and Vladimir Putin too.

Or maybe one of these “gentlemen” is ex-chess champion Garry Kasparov, who is now laurelled in the west as one of Russia’s neo-dissidents. Or maybe it is his accomplice and popular writer Eduard Limonov who leads the National Bolshevik Party, a rebellious movement famous for its radical actions? Together these two gentlemen have organized public mass demonstrations in a coalition movement The Other Russia. On the 24th of November Kasparov was arrested and imprisoned during one of these protests. In St. Petersburg members of Yabloko were arrested during a peaceful protest in the centre of the city.

Are any of these gentlemen really a threat to United Russia backed up by a famous President? I think not. The following and most important question is: what will Putin do after United Russia wins the elections?

Posted by Freek van der Vet, Intern Dutch Institute St. Petersburg on 30-11-2007 - 13:08:12