Fri 30 Nov 2007 - Putin 's Plan? III scenario's

What will Putin do after United Russia wins the elections? Three scenarios are being discussed now: First, chances are that Putin will use loopholes in the Russian constitution to allow him to take on another term as president. Sergey Mironov, Federation Council Speaker and the leader of the pro-presidential party Free Russia, promotes a third term for Putin at the same time as he is running his own campaign. The so-called Za Putina (For Putin) movements also seem to spread across Russia at this moment. These movements propose that Putin should take on a third term or should occupy the special status of “The Leader of the Nation”.
The second rumor holds that Putin will become “The Leader of the Nation”, an extra-constitutional entity that would allow him to survey the coming presidents and ensure the continuity of “Putin’s Plan”.

The third, and in my opinion the most likely scenario, is that Putin becomes prime minister and will lead a majority in the State Duma. This will allow him to influence politics with a strong base of support; both from inside of the Duma, and maybe from the Za Putina movements and pro-Putin youth movements in society. Putin will not take on a third term as Russia’s President; because in that case he would break with the constitution he always fiercely defended.
Another mounting problem is the absence of international observers, as the OSCE announced that it would not send any observers at all after the denial of visas by Russian authorities. The rumors of electoral fraud are growing. An anonymous official stated that state officials and students are forced to vote for United Russia and they have to encourage others to do so as well. They face sanctions or expulsion from university if they fail to vote for the party, the state official said. The nonattendance of observers and the tactics of United Russia to gather the bulk of the votes definitely fuel the possibility of the rigging of the parliamentary elections.

In Russia political parties gather around United Russia and Vladimir Putin and state functionaries express their support for the president. No real alternative is available to United Russia. Most democratic parties will not make it across the 7 percent barrier which guarantees seats in the parliament. Public gatherings are firmly put to silence. In this situation parties don’t compete and it is unclear whether they support their own party or another. Not one party will win these elections, but one man only: Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.

Posted by Freek van der Vet, Intern Dutch Institute St. Petersburg on 30-11-2007 - 13:41:28