Ukraine

Last update: 7 months ago

On 21 April 2019, the presidential runoff was won by comedian and actor Volodymyr Zelensky. He defeated incumbent President Petro Poroshenko with a landslide, gaining 73 per cent of the votes. Poroshenko got 25 per cent of the votes. The turnout was just over 62 per cent. Zelensky’s role in the popular television series “Servant of the People” has become reality, as he plays a teacher-turned-president that goes on to wipe out corruption and fight against oligarchs. For a majority of the people, this refers to the political establishment personified, in this election, by Poroshenko, and the government’s failure to end corruption over the years.

Zelenskiy succeeds President Petro Poroshenko, who had been elected to office following the so-called EuroMaidan revolution of 2013/14. Although Poroshenko managed to modernise the military and achieved a separation of the Ukrainian church from the Russian Orthodox church, his critics accuse him of coming up short on many of the promises he made regarding systemic changes. Zelenskiy, a newcomer with no prior experience in politics, will now have the daunting task of implementing major reforms expected by his voters.

Zelensky dissolved the parliament on 21 may 2019 to bring forward the parliamentary elections. This, in an attempt to gain a majority in parliament which would be needed to pass legislation. With approximately 43.14 per cent of the votes, Zelenskiy’s Servant of the People party was the winner of the election. The party, only founded in 2018, is pro-European and pro-NATO but is other than that quite broad and undefined in its ideology. President Zelenskiy became Ukraine’s first president, since the fall of the Soviet-Union, to rule the parliament with a single majority. However, the low voting turn-out is also historic: only 49.9 per cent of the population cast a vote.

In March 2020 Zelensky replaced the prime minister, giving Denis Shmyhal the position after then prime-minister Oleksiy Honcharuk resigned. The president hoped the new prime-minister could "do the impossible" and turn Ukraine's economy around as well as prepare for other reforms. Honcharuk had once before handed in his resignation after a recording of him was leaked of what appeared to be him criticising Zelensky's economic policy. He handed in his resignation days later to "remove any doubts" about his government's respect for Zelensky. However, Zelensky refused to accept the resignation because he wanted to give Honcharuk and his government another chance.

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Short facts

Population:: 45,198,200 million (World Bank 2015 est.)
Governmental Type:: Republic
Ruling Coalition:: One party: Servant of the People
Last Elections:: 21 July 2019 (Parliamentary elections)
Next Elections:: October 2020 (Local elections)
Sister Parties:: Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (SDPU)

Volodymyr Zelensky

President

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Denys Shmyhal

Prime Minister

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Political Situation

Political system
Ukraine has a parliamentary presidential system, which means that on a national level the country elects a head of state, the president, and a legislature. The president is directly elected by the people for a five-year term. The president needs a majority of the votes in the first round to be elected. Otherwise, a second round is held, in which the two candidates with the highest amount of votes (in the first round) can compete.

The parliament (Verkhovna Rada) has 450 members, elected for a four-year term. Until 2005, half of the members were elected by proportional representation and the other half by single-mandate constituencies. Starting with the 2006 parliamentary election, all 450 members were elected by proportional representation, but after a change under Yanukovich’s presidency in 2011, the parallel system of proportional representation and single-member constituencies was restored. From that moment on, candidates were to be elected through party lists or self-nomination.

The constitution prescribes that the governmental parties must have a majority in parliament. Thus, minority coalitions are formally not an option for government coalitions. Representative bodies and heads of local government throughout Ukraine are elected simultaneously with the Verkhovna Rada.

Latest political issues
On 21 November 2013, a small protest broke out after President Yanukovych abandoned a trade agreement with the European Union, favouring closer ties with Russia. Online videos of police beating protesters later at night sparked a much larger outrage throughout the country, with hundreds of thousands of people taking to the streets within days, dubbed as the Maidan protest. The Maidan protests resulted in pro-EU protesters occupying the Maidan square and taking control of government buildings for months. Eventually, clashes between pro-EU protesters and the police resulted in an apogee on 18 February 2014, when over 70 protesters were killed. In the political turmoil that followed, President Yanukovich fled the country to Russia. An interim government was appointed with Olexander Turchynov as interim president. In the weeks that followed, pro-Russian protests broke out in eastern Ukraine and the southern province of Crimea. Pro-Russian and Russian forces took control of government buildings and strategic military complexes in the Crimea on 27 February, increasing tensions between Ukraine and Russia. On 16 March 2014, the Crimea joined Russia through a referendum in which an overwhelming majority voted in favour of Russia. The West claims this to be a violation of territorial integrity and a violation of international law, whereas Russia says it had to protect its Russian citizens in Crimea.

In the months following the annexation of the Crimea by Russia, the conflict reached a climax. Malaysia Airlines plane MH17 was shot down above eastern Ukrainian territory, killing all 298 passengers on board. The event sparked international outrage and triggered the close involvement of the international community. The European Union, the United States and other countries intensified sanctions on pro-Russian separatists and Russia. Meanwhile, the provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk declared themselves independent from Ukraine on 11 September 2014. On 6 September 2014, both parties agreed to a ceasefire in the capital of Belarus, Minsk.

This so-called Minsk I ceasefire was violated continuously and got out of control in January 2015. In February, Ukraine, Lugansk, Donetsk and Russia agreed to the Minsk II accords, and a new ceasefire was born. However, this ceasefire was violated intensively in the first week when pro-Russian separatists opened an offensive on the strategic city of Debaltseve, which eventually led to their victory when the Ukrainian army retreated from the area. After this offensive, both parties seem to abide by the Minsk II accords, although fighting remains an every-day activity.

Sanctions on eastern Ukraine and Russia remain.

Elections

Parliamentary elections

On 20 May, the day of his inauguration, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced his intention to dissolve parliament and call early elections. On that day the presidential decree set the elections for 21 July, and Zelensky dissolved the parliament because the current coalition didn’t have the support of the majority of the parliament. 62 MPs filed a constitutional challenge against the decree, but the Constitutional Court ruled in favour of early elections on 20 June. After the election results were published it became clear that the president’s party, Servant of the People, won a majority. The party won 254 seats out of 424, thereby enabling it to form a government without a coalition. For the first time in the history of independent Ukraine, one party could control the cabinet of ministers, the office of the president and parliament on its own. Many consider the victory of Zelensky to be the result of disappointment in the previous government and the continuous power of oligarchs in Ukrainian society.

Campaign
The OSCE reported that during the campaigning period contestants were able to freely convey their messages to the electorate. The campaign was seen as competitive with a huge amount of candidates representing a wide spectrum of political options. Despite this, vote-buying remained widespread in many regions of the country, especially in single-vote mandate districts. The National police initiated over 125 criminal investigations concerning vote-buying. On top of that, several incumbent MPs and mayors, who stood as candidates, often misused their incumbency by promising and providing benefits to voters.

Election results 2019
Due to the war in eastern Ukraine elections couldn’t be held in 26 different constituencies, and as a result, 26 out of 450 seats were left vacant. With all votes counted, the Central Election Commission (CEC) showed five parties passing the 5 per cent threshold, thus entering the Ukrainian Parliament (Rada). Voter turnout was historically low with only 49.9 per cent of the population casting their vote.

Party	Seats party lists*	Seats constituencies**	Total	%
Servant of the People	124	130	254	43.16 %
Opposition Platform — For Life	37	6	43	13,05 %
Fatherland	24	2	26	8,08 %
European Solidarity	23	2	25	8,10 %
Holos (Voice)	17	3	20	5,84 %
Opposition Bloc	-	6	6	3,03 %
All-Ukrainian Union "Svoboda"	-	1	1	2,15 %
Self Reliance	-	1	1	0,62 %
United centre	-	1	1	-
Bila Tserkva Together	-	1	1	-
Independent single constituencies	-	46	46	10,85

* Proportional lists
** Single-mandate constituencies

The elections resulted in a major win for Zelensky’s Servant of the People, along with which three new political parties entered the Rada, namely Opposition Platform - For Life, European Solidarity and Holos(Voice). Opposition Platform consists of former members from its predecessor For Life, Opposition Bloc Ukraine Forward! and Ukrainian Choice. The party is openly pro-Russian and anti-EU. European Solidarity is essentially a rebranding of “Poroshenko Bloc” and aims to continue Porsohenko’s political agenda. Holos is founded by singer Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, who presents himself as anti-establishment and is considered to be a Liberal, pro-EU and pro-NATO. Thanks to Servant of the People and Holos, 80 per cent of MPs are newcomers. Furthermore, the average age of MPs has gone down from 48 to 41 years compared to the previous parliament. A record number of 87 women will enter the Rada as a result of the elections making up 19.3 per cent of the total number of deputies. A significant increase from 2014 when 11.1 per cent of the parliament was made up of women.

Aftermath
With Zelensky getting the majority in parliament he is now expected to deliver on his long list of promises made during his presidential campaign. First on the list is tackling the widespread corruption and influence of oligarchs in Ukraine. In this respect, elections are seen as a victory over the old elites ruling the country alongside oligarchs. But as OSCE and other reports show, oligarchs were heavily involved in the recent campaigns. With media coverage being particularly unfairly distributed, as it was largely dictated by business and political interests. This did not ensure equal coverage for all the candidates. President Zelenskiy himself has business ties to oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, owner of 1+1, one of Ukraine’s most popular TV channels, which had always broadcasted his shows and has given Zelensky a powerful platform. On the day before the presidential elections, the channel was filled with shows by comedian Zelensky. The overall media landscape lacks objectivity and is “divided along political lines”, concentrated in the hands of a few owners.

Presidential elections

On 21 April the presidential runoff was won by comedian and frontrunner Volodymyr Zelensky. He defeated incumbent President Petro Poroshenko with 73 per cent of the votes. Poroshenko got 25 per cent of the votes. The turnout of the votes was just over 62 per cent. On 31 March 2019, the first round of presidential elections was held in Ukraine. Comedian Volodymyr Zelensky then already enjoyed the majority, namely 30.23 per cent, of the votes. Incumbent President Petro Poroshenko was second with 15.95 per cent, followed by Bativshchyna Party leader Yulia Tymoshenko with 13.38 per cent.

Frontrunner Zelensky, 41 years old, is best known for his role in the political comedy series Servant of the People where he plays a teacher that becomes president of Ukraine through some extraordinary circumstances and proceeds to fight corruption and shake up the political system. During his anti-establishment campaign, he mocked his political rivals with jokes, sketches and other performances. Zelensky promised that, if elected, he will fight against corruption and for reforms. Moreover, he promised to address and implement peace talks for eastern Ukraine. He also wanted to implement a new law on ‘People’s Rule’ to establish referendums where Ukrainians could express their expectations for the authorities. More than 35 million people were eligible to vote in the first round.

Election results

Candidate		Party	First-round		Second round
Candidate		Party	Votes	%	Votes	%
	Volodymyr Zelensky	Servant of the People	5,714,034	30.24	13,541,528	73.22
	Petro Poroshenko	Independent	3,014,609	15.95	4,522,320	24.45
	Yulia Tymoshenko	Fatherland	2,532,452	13.40
	Yuriy Boyko	Independent	2,206,216	11.67
	Anatoliy Hrytsenko	Civil Position	1,306,450	6.91
	Ihor Smeshko	Independent	1,141,332	6.04
	Oleh Lyashko	Radical Party	1,036,003	5.48
	Oleksandr Vilkul	Opposition Bloc	784,274	4.15
	Ruslan Koshulynskyi	Svoboda	307,244	1.62
	Yuri Tymoshenko	Independent	117,693	0.62